Three Dr. Doom's give their 2009 outlook

Oh brother...unemployment is on the rise!

Hearing about the economy going south is only bad for two reasons.....it hurts to see investments I have take it on the chin.....but even worst, it is hard to imagine possibly being laid off.

Cash flow is the key to life's finances....and having a job makes so much possible.

Even if you have savings.....those are supposed to be for retirement....and I'm not quite at that point!

So this article talks about mounting job losses....and how we are already into the sort of unemployment that characterizes a recession.

Hang on tight people.....

Oh brother.....is this a reply of the Crash in 1929?

Ok...so this isn't exactly the same.....but perhaps in scope. I hope not because if it is, then four years from now we will be seeing 25% unemployment.

Gold had it's largest single day increase EVER yesterday...and the dollar is again beginning to devalue.

Hang on tight.....it is going to be a rough ride.

Looks as though Warren Brussee was right!

House prices in Westford Mass have taken a good size hit....

No matter how you slice it.....going from close to $500,000 down to below $400,000 is a 20% hit.

I can't believe the seasonal nature of the market I see there....well, I knew there was a seasonality to the sales volume, but price too!

Maybe that only occures in what we today call a distressed market. (or should I say what we have today)

Hmmm....as goes Gold, so does Oil?

I saw this BLOG today that describes what sounds like dire times for oil....but at the end of the article, I saw the graph I have included here.

It is interesting to me because it compares the price of oil (per barrel) to in units of dollars, Euros, and Ounces of Gold.

We know how Gold has gone up in recent years.....and we see the same thing with oil.

But I didn't think the price of oil and gold had tracked each other so well....almost a flat line as opposed to the dollar!

What does that mean? Do people put Oil on the same level as gold? That is, is it so needed by the world that it has become a new place to consider a "sure thing" should there be financial collapse?

I don't think so myself.....but I wonder what other think?

Interesting post on the US Economy....

Ok, most of you know I have worries and opinions on the state of the US economy. I suppose I am looking forward more than a couple of years to my retirement and wondering how my self-saved nest-egg will survive it.

So I have been on a quest to try and educate myself on our economy, and how to benefit from whatever happens .

Before you get upset...I don't mean benefit at the expense of others. I'm talking simply about knowing when to Zig and Zag to get the best return for my own investments. Totally above board.....nothing criminal or taking advantage of ANYONE.

Well...the old rule about buying investment property is probably no longer true....and buy and hold might be a horrible thing if you pick the wrong stocks. (we all know that the stock market can go down as well as up these days)

So I found another web discussion of our economy that is interesting. I'm not sure how accurate it ism but it seems quite plausible. Check this one out and see what you think.

The FED lowers rates...perhaps acknowledging the slowing economy...oil hits $94.50 a barrel.....but stock prices rise!?!?

Ok, so I'm going a little overboard with the graphic to the left....but it really does feel like a bubble economy we are in once again.

My only experience with bubbles was the 2001 Stock Market crash.....and guess what, I remember the issue being all these .COM companies gaining stock price and having absolutely no chance of making a profit. (some of their business plans just never showed a profit....or perhaps they would say "And then the magic happens")

The Federal Reserve has cut rates again.....I guess they see the economy sliding.

Then oil prices hit a new high of $94.50 a barrel, on their way to $100 per barrel.

So that's just plain slipping economy...wheres the bubble in that?

Not exactly there...because I think those things are the result of a general slide we are on. But the bubble isn't far away from all that.

So, IMHO the housing market is where our bubble resides today....we have a housing market that seems like a similar place to the stock market of early 2001.....except the slide isn't perhaps as quick as of yet.

Housing foreclosures have gone up big time, but they are still a small piece of the total market....but then housing sales are way down too, along with prices.

But the big problem I see is that I know of people who are upside down on their house, and don't even know it......and they "think" they have retirement money sitting between those four walls.

They might not see their problem until they do to retire.....then they will get hit square between the eyes. Then what?

But what of the people who have saved.....what about them?

Maybe that poster above isn't so far fetched.....we might be in for a massive push to "redistribute the wealth"......and we will probably do it at the ballot box.

It might not have made any sense to be a saver after all.....we are a consumer society.....and now we are consuming ourselves.

Slow and Steady wins the race? (didn't I post about this before?? :-)

I was reading through by list of finance BLOGS when I came across this one....and I have to day I was very pleased to read it.

First of all. most people are doom and gloomers....and I guess I'm also not at the top of the heap of positive people when you start talking about our economy...the exporting of jobs....and the value of our currency......but there are bright spots all around that we should be able to point to.

I was shocked to see this article suggest that 1 out of 3 people in the USA are Millionaires....that is, they have a net worth above $1,000,000. That's outstanding....and it is even more interesting to see that these people did it "the old fashioned way"....they "SAVED" it.

No venture capital start-ups.....no gambling in Vegas......no leveraged stock buys......just spend less than you make and invest the surplus "for a rainy day".

This actually makes perfect sense when you consider another statistic......did you know that the great depression of 1929 only had unemployment rates of about 25%. Now that's high for sure, but given what you read about times back then and all the rationing and shortages that were in existance.....a full 75% of the families were working. (Though I am not sure that tracked "underemployment" as they might today.)

But then if you read other BLOGS like this one and then this one that describe the workings of the 1929 depression, you will note that they talk about the great disparity of income and net worth that further caused problems. Apparently wages increased 9% in the 10 years after 1929, but that incease was not across the board, but heavily skewed toward those making more. (the top 1% wage earner made a 75% increase while the average factory worker only 8% while their productivity increased 32% for the same period)

So what to do you ask? I guess the first thing......stay out of the debt snare. What to do with savings....this is the $64,000 question, isn't it.

Simple Investment Ideas and Concepts for Friends

A friend of mine and I were talking about investing of retirement money this weekend, and they asked me for some advice.

They wondered if I could look at their investment portfolio and give them some an assessment of their mutual fund choices.

My first reaction was:

"Gee...I might have a few bucks in my retirement account, but I don't think I'm an expert."

Well, I still agree with not bring an expert, but I have to say that I might be selling myself short with regard to not knowing something about investing.....yes, my knowledge is simple, but I think it is always useful. (I didn't make it up, so don't let me make you think I created a special set of investment rules)

No, I thought about what I might suggest, and my first rule of thumb would be to diversified.

Simple enough.....

The my second rule of thumb.....set it and forget it. (sort of....at least try to do your homework and pick long term investments and only monkey with those investments once a year, or should the bottom fall out. Oh, if things crash, certainly then it is time to GET OUT ahead of the others while there is still a "bottom" to the market)

My friend told me they initially put their money into a socially responsible fund....and I noted that this actually might not be such a bad place....you just have to do a bit of homework to see what that particular set of funds is doing and if it invests in good growth areas, or things that are under stess. (and of course, past performance is no indication of future performance....but you have to look at something if you don't have a crystal ball.....at least try to look at and assess its more long term potential.)

So I suppose I will look at their portfolio and see if anything "pops out at me".

Will there be an Economic Tipping Point?

I read in Warren Brussees BLOG that he thinks is theory about a depression in 2007 is coming closer into view. He admits that he might be as much as a year off, but he is still seeing his prediction from his book unfolding.

His BLOG seems to imply a sort of economic "tipping point"....a point in time where one characteristic of the economy changes past a sort of inflection point whereby any further change in that parameter causes a much larger change (an avalanch of sorts) in another response.

He sees the credit crisis, and crashing cost of the housing market as the catalyst for a fast decline in consumer spending, which kills our GDP quite quickly (since it accounts for 70% of it) and sets off a series of chain reactions which further closes down credit....etc....etc.....we have a closed loop cycle that now feedsback on itself.

Is he right?

Who knows....all I know is that it seems to me that the death of an economy is probably much like that of a human, and I hope you don't get grossed out by this, but I witnessed someone very close to me pass away, and they did not go easily.

No, they obviously loved life, and wanted so much to keep it....and their struggle was very long and hard. They eventually were overcome and passed on, but thei very last breaths were not easy and I could sense their final struggle to stay with us.

I see the economy in the same way.....it isn't going to go easily. It is going to try every way it can to survive and grow healthy again. It is probabably not as dynamic or resourcefull as the human body, but it surely isn't any more willing to roll over and die either.

But I'm thinking that the death throws of an economy will be no less violent than that of a human holding on to their last breath.....for our economy is after all still driven by humans. There are enough of us who don't give up easy...so I expect any downturn to be perhaps fast.

Like the depression in 1929....or even some of the other market crashes and panics before and after.

Let's hope Warren is wrong....let's hope he is WAY OFF and in his assesment.

And if he is right....let's hope all of us have the common sense to know that money doesn't make the world go around, and that there is still so much more to live for. Many people didn't know that around 1929....I'd like to think we can learn from the past.

Buy and Hold is my life.....readjust every so often......

GENERAL INVESTMENT APPROACH:
I would like to think that my investment approach is one of "buy and homework" (As Jim Cramer calls it).....but I think it is a bit easier to describe it as a more classic buy and hold.

Every quarter I look at my portfolio and see how it is doing. I do this against what I think the market is doing...and I look at particular items in the mix against each other.

I try not to chase maximum yields, but rather I try to see if the overall blend is performing OK. I tend to leave things along, and perhaps do a small level of "rebalancing" if things are a bit skewed.

But even here, this is normally a once a year activity.


HOW DO I SAVE?:
I do the same for saving...I don't think about it on a daily of weekly basis....I set-up a budget and and allow my savings to simply be an automatic part of my cash-flow. Then I just monitor the items of my budget on say a monthly basis to make sure I don't spend too much and unbalance the apple-cart.

When this works, savings just seems to happen automatically. I don't fret over it. It might not happen in the same level every week, but over the long term it works.

I sort of put it on autopilot.


CASH FLOW IS KING:
Ok...so if all this is automatic, how do I make it happen? What is it that I monitor and adjust?

How keep the whole system described above flowing.....in the black? How do I know my plans and budgets are going along as planned?

Well, I monitor cash flow fairly closely. I find this is the magic lever because that's the place where money is moved.....and is the place where the rubber meets the road. Once I get my weekly spending in line with my budget, I know I'm saving!

Money, life and retirement planning

IT HAS BEEN A WHILE:
It has been a while since I have posted even though I have been sort of storing up ideas for posts ever since.

But this weekend I was talking to a friend of mine about retirement and about retirement savings, and it struck me that there are so many different approaches. (duh...how obvious)

They were telling me how lucky their parents were to have invested in a house because it is currently their retirement nest egg.

At this point with the housing market melt-down, I am not sure that investing in a house would be the way to save right now. (it might be good after the market adjustment / collapse though)

MY RETIREMENT SAVINGS APPROACH:
We own a house....well, most of it at this point, and we have seen appreciation from the $175,000 we paid for it. (it's probably worth about $310K after all is said and done)

But the major problem is of course that I would still need to live somewhere.....so I would be trading rent for a mortgage payment.....but then I guess I would have more in savings.

But I have never considered my house to be a savings vehicle.....I always thought it as gravy on top of it all should I make a profit in the end. I was more of the slow and steady saver.....always trying to put as high a percentage of my pay away every week/month.

I knew enough NOT to put that savings under my mattress, but to try and put it into fairly safe investment vehicles. No...I never really bought individual stocks....I never bought on margin...I never bought short....I basically went into very safe mutual funds and bonds.

As the SBLI ad says: "It ain't glamorous"..... but it works so long as time is on your side.

Buy and hold....that is my life of retirement investing. This means I investigate things in the finance investment arena, I readjust any savings I have into areas I feel comfortable with...and I go to sleep for about a year and do it all again. (with money going into those investments I chose every week from my paycheck)

Boring indeed....but I never really wanted white knuckle adventure from my retirement investments, so it suites me.

RETIREMENT:
As I see the computer industry slowly being absorbed by companies overseas....I think about my future employment. First of all, I see great pay cuts in my future if I have to change fields. I also see possible re-tooling of skills....which might mean education costs too.

My daughters are still in College...with Kristen having 3 more years of her BA degree and Kim one more year. But Kristen will be going on to more school, and I would like to help with that. (and Kim too, if she decides to go on)

Right now I am amazed that our investments are brining just enough in to pay for these costs......at least with the continued money I still save from my pay. But if I lost my job, things would go upside down very quickly because I too would need to start taking from the pot.

So the next few years are important to my work life....I have to keep that in my mind and work hard to be the most valuable employee possible. (of course, even that doesn't help some times :-)

STEPS TO RETIREMENT:
The article I reference above is an interesting one as it talks about the five emotional stages we go through as we move into retirement. These steps are described as: Imagination, Anticipation, Liberation, Reorientation, Reconciliation. (with retirement day happening between Anticipation and Liberation)

I would say that I am somewhere between Imagination and Anticipation....even at my young age of 48. I probably should not be thinking so "old", but it really isn't so much a matter of what I want to happen...but what the outside influences of the job market are thrusting upon me.

I'd love to work until I was dead....and I probably will....but I might not be working in a high paid job that will make ends meet....so I have to at least have a plan to get the cash flow needed.....and I guess since I would be playing with my retirement money....I tend to think of that as "retirement".

Such is life....it never goes per plan.

Where do you think the market is heading?

If you asked me this about 3 months ago, I would have told you there would be a correction. How can I prove that....well, I did move from an 80/10% equity to bond split to a 50/50% split back then.....and I was sort of kicking myself for the past few months.

Last night I felt like Einstein.....

I'm not totally sure what suddenly spooked people. The idea that the American economy was slowing....that's not a new concept. The fact that the Chinese economy can not sustain an 11% growth rate.....heck, they even said that many months ago too.

These are some of the things that spooked me, along with China's position to sell some of their dollars and the whole world sort of getting skittish about the dollar. We have also experienced a number ob bubble or bubble-like situation from the .BOMB crash in 2001 to the housing meltdown currently under way.

This notion of a soft landing always struck me as odd....sort of like seeking a slow core meltdown of a nuclear reactor as opposed to an uncontrolled fusion reaction....one seems much worst than the other, but neither is at all pleasant!

So now I watch oil prices sliding up....I see record numbers of people going bankrupt....I see housing sales in the toilet with the nations largest builder explaining away a 70% drop in profits.
I see jobless numbers looking ok, but also knowing some of that is bogus because people fall off the unemployment rolls and then cease to count in the statistics.

So I'm happy with my 50/50% split for now. I had some money coming available that I was going to place in a more aggressive instrument, but I think I have decided that slow and steady wins the race!

Onward and upward!

Back to long-term money thinking.....

I have started to come back around and think about the long term investment outlook a bit. I was talking to my financial advisor and he made a comment that perked my ears up.

He noted that the market was still going up. It initially perked my ears up because I had just decided to go from a 70%-30% equity to bond portfolio to a 50%-50% mix.

I perked up because I thought I was making a mistake, and I guess I looked worried to him because he instantly shot back and said "This is when I start to get worried about the market. When everyone in the world thinks it's hot is when I start to worry that it is at some sort of a top." (which made me feel better)

But let me not give you the wrong impression....I am not a market timer. At least not with the majority of our money. (I have a very small amount that I had initially had in Vonage stock that I have since moved into two Chinese telecom stocks....but even that money has been sitting there inactive.....and I have no idea how that is doing!)

I am certainly more of a buy-and-hold person. I think I made one rebalance in the portfolio in the past year....and I went from about 60%-40% up to the 70%-30% I mentioned above......and just a couple of weeks ago down.

I guess I have been a bit pessimistic for the past year, but the markets seem to continue to be fairly strong. (except the housing market that is)

So I'm starting to get re-energized about thinking long term again.

Here are a few online calculators to help you think about the long term affects of interest and money growth.

First, this one I find interesting because it lets me easily calculate what a million bucks in 1980 (when I graduated College and dreamed of such things) is today. (how much I need to have to have the buying power of a millinaire in 1980)

Then this Yahoo calculator lets me type in my current financial situation, play with projected interest and load rates, and calculate my worth in future years. (in net and constant value dollars) That is a lot of fun because it gets me charged about about saving and long term growth.

Of course, being the visual person that I am, I love to look at this online graphing program that lets me watch money growth of particular situations. You pick all ins and outs of your investment and expense money flow and it graphs the growth....albeit with a static year to year model. (such is life....no model is perfect)

So I guess I suggest that you start playing with these tools and put yourself in a mindset of Rip Van Winkle awakening from a nap in 10 or 20 years.....then put your investment on autopilot until then. (doing an analysis and perhaps rebalancing every 6 to 12 months)

Why are these Northern New England pieces of land suddenly coming my way?

The past three days have seen about four pieces of email come to me from realtors I have communicated with over the past 4 years?

A few years back Cheryl and I were looking at property in either Northern NH or VT, and there were several parcels of land that we almost bought.

We liked the area up there, and wanted a piece of land to eventually build on. Something that had more than a postage sized plot that might perhaps have a pond or nice stream on it. Big enough to have a lot of privacy, and be a part of the wilderness up there.

There was this 600 acre piece of land in Northumberland that was absolute heaven. It contained the peak of Morse Mountain, and when you stood on that 2000 foot peak and looked down at the Connecticut river you felt like your head was in the clouds! (and there was one time that it actually was, and I felt as though a lightning bolt was up there with us!)

But that land was a bit too rich for my wallet....

Then there was the 258 acre parcel in Western NH that was an old piece owned by a hermet farmer. It was sort of hidden in the woods, but accessed by car. That was within my price range, at only $45,000, and I should have bought it. But 20-20 hindsight is just that...hindsight.

Well, I'm not sure I want to be moving up to northern NH all by myself at this point, but when the email has been coming in I tend to rush to the listing and look at it....as I did when Cheryl and I were looking those years ago. But this time there will be no trips to the property to check it out.

But for those of you interested in Northern NH, VT and Maine land, I recommend going to the Northern New England RealEstate Network Website...www.nneren.com and search there, There are good deals to be had in Northern New England. (and after Global warming takes hold, it will be a great place in the winter!)

The loss of income after a passing

I feel a little funny talking a lot about money and cash flow after my wife's passing, because this isn't really what I spend my time during the day thinking ab0ut. In fact, it really has not been on my mind at all.

But last night a friend of mine came over and we were just talking. At one point he asked if everything was going to be OK financially. My first comment was, I'm not worried about things like that. Everything will work out.

Well, I honestly believe this will be the case, but he hit me with a couple of thoughts that I honestly had not considered. Even though my salary was considerably higher than my wife (she being a new teacher), her salary was not insignificant at all.

In fact, he pay was about 30% of mine...which means that in an instant, our household income will be dropping by 25%.

Lucky for me, we have been savers all our lives, and we have never been the kind of people to live on the edge of debt. Our cash flow was always pretty solid, and I'm not saying I will not have to make any adjustments.....I will certainly have to. But we were on a pretty good savings trajectory and with some hopefully minor cutbacks and readjustments, I should be able to stay in the black. (albeit at a significantly slower savings pace)

Cheryl and I never calculated all this down to the penny, but we did consider all of this when we decided how our will would be set-up, and how much insurance we would carry.

I was the one heavily covered because the family really depended on my income. Thank God the kids are now older because we very much depended upon Cheryl staying home with the kids....not for monetary reasons, but because we felt this would offer the best foundation we could give our kids as they grew up. (most of our goals and moves were done to optimize the opportunity for our kids....and that will continue to be the case)

Life is complicated....and death can really complicate things if you have not considered that possibility. I thank God that Cheryl and I had thought a bit about this and had a decent plan.

As I said before....create a will, and think about whether you really need insurance!

My latest wrestling with our home finances.....

I thought I would just post some of the finance thoughts and things I have been pondering these days. I have not written as often as I had in the past, so you may not have followed our families situation.

My wife passed away just before Christmas last month, so quite frankly, money has not been anywhere near the top of my priority these days. Not that it isn't important, but as my dad used to say..."Money doesn't make the world go around, but it sure greases the wheel."

But let's face it, taking care of my daughters and family affairs is top priority....because blood is thicker than money. (ok...so I did a mash-up on a couple of old sayings....you get the guist)

But I have to admit that I can't just "forget" money....neither Cheryl nor I were born with a silver spoon in our mouth....and life isn't free.

Neither Life nor Death Are Free:
So here are a couple of things that have come up that you might never have considered. First, passing away isn't inexpensive. Even if you have some form of insurance, it is at least a cash flow problem. Simple services and burial costs between $10,000 and say $13,000....and the cemetery plots up here in NH are actually quite reasonable. (my wife and my plots costs $750 per site with a cost of another $750 to "open" the site for burial...but remember this cost pays for upkeep of the cemetery forever. Even inexpensive when you consider it "by the acre" :-)

The funeral home arrangements were about $9300. (I don't think that is too personal to disclose) I never looked into these costs, but I guess I wasn't surprised by any of them. Then there were all the costs for various ceremonies and participants. (no, I will not itemize those....but they include donations to the priest, church, organist/singer, and other people who worked along the way...all donations, but customary)

But back to that comment I made about the NH funeral plots being inexpensive..... my cousin who came up from Florida for my wife's funeral, and he wants to be buried with his parents in Woburn Mass. He took a ride over to size it up and get a price for cemetery plots. (Not my idea of a fun time....but he wants to have all his ducks in a row so that he doesn't impact his mate when he passes away...hopefully many, many years from now)

Anyways....the plots there in Woburn cost $2200 each! (Both are Catholic Cemeteries too!) I knew land was cheaper here in NH, but that sort of difference is crazy.

So I suggest everyone at least consider how their passing will impact the remaining family members, and either set money aside or have some level of insurance.....I suppose that is a tough thing to consider, but it doesn't have to be. We talk about health and auto insurance and we clearly never want to use it just the same.

Short Term and Long Term Planning:
Besides this cash flow crunch, I have also been starting to think about my youngest daughter's desire to transfer to another college. Cheryl and I had a financial plan worked out where we have saved money to help our daughters get through college, so this is a topic we have discussed many times.

My focus now is around Kristen's desire to go on for her PhD.....and believe you me, I am thrilled that she understands the value and wants to do that! (My dad warned me not to stop my education because it would be tough to get back to it...and I have to say, my dad was 100% correct!)

So I'm not so much stressed about Kristen transfering (I am taking a week off from work to take a grand tour of a few colleges on the east coast with her soon)...nor am I too worried about her leaving $30,000 in scholarship money behind at Hofstra, since I do want to support her and Kim to the fullest. As we talked about this the other night, I realized that I just moved my investment portfolio on to a more "conservative" tack. (I am worried about our economy, the falling dollar, and the housing bubble....but you know I worry a lot less about it when I don't pay attention! the old saying is right-on: "Ignorance is bliss!!!")

So I guess I need to add one more item to my massive "to-do" list....to again look at our long term financial plan for everything and re-balance it given a slightly higher (and longer) cost of college.

But like I noted earlier....I have my priorities....and unless the market is crashing down around my ears, I have more pressing priorities at the moment.....like my kids! The finances can wait until they get back to school and I get back to my empty house. (not actually empty at the moment with both my girls and my mother in-law here right now :-)

I hope this sort of BLOG entry isn't so boring or "frightening" as to turn people off....please bear with me as we get through our family problems. I will attempt to keep all my posts at least tangentially related to personal finance...and perhaps bring up topics like this that some may not even consider thinking about. (but will probably unfortunately affect every one of us at some point in our lives)

Market Maps from SmartMoney.COM

Check out this cool and very visual representation of the various stocks in he market. It is sometimes a lot easier to understand the various attributes of a companies finances when you see them in a graphical format.

From the website:

The market at a glance The map lets you watch more than 500 stocks at once, with data updated every 15 minutes. Each colored rectangle in the map represents an individual company. The rectangle's size reflects the company's market cap and the color shows price performance. (Green means the stock price is up; red means it's down. Dark colors are neutral). Move the mouse over a company rectangle and a little panel will pop up with more information.

Check out this page for the market shown this way, and then there is this page that shows the ETF market in a similar manner.

Also, check out this cool website that is a cool way to search for stocks by selecting various parameters to separate what you consider the wheat from the chaff. It looks like a really great tool.

The only problem with these tools is that for analytical people like me, they are addictive!

Baby boom in China; Year of the Golden Pig (any investment opportunities?)

The year 2007 is one of the special "Year of the Pig" that comes around every 60 years. Having a child is this special year is apparently very lucky, and this seems to NOT have gone unnoticed. (In China anyways)

I have read several reports that indicate that China expects a bump in the birth rate of 20% this coming year, and at least part of it is the hope of the Golden Pig year. (general prosperity is of course another reason)

So the obvious question that pops into my mind is "How can I invest to take advantage of that?"

Well, I don't know that I have enough of a cultural knowledge of China to truely know the answer, and it is always dangerous to reflect the values and characteristics of the USA on any other place in the world. I also would not like to guess how this would play out in say 5 to 10 years when these "Golden Pig" kids are growing....that's kind of a long term investment to me.

I'd be interested in your thoughts. I'm thinking that besides the normal baby related clothing or toy stuff that the thing to consider is perhaps entertainment or education. I'm not sure how the Chinese version of Disney will go over, but with this sort of baby boom and an ever increasing wealth there, I would think that spending more of their new family members might NOT be just an American trait, but perhaps a normal human reaction.

Maybe 20% increase isn't enough to cause any noticeable difference, but I suspect it is. What do you think? (this guy thinks "golden pigs" are the way to go)

China isn't just a Manufacturer....they are trying to LEAD the world's Technology Direction too

EVD players.....for the price if DVD...right now....today! (that's $87 in case you were wondering)

We in the west like to think of China as our "manufacturing arm"....but the Chinese are not happy simply making our goods.

Sure, they know that there is plenty of value in that, but they see the great value in being the leaders and creators of those things.

But wait, isn't that what our leaders of industry and government have declared that we have carved out for ourselves....we would develop ideas and they would make them.

Sorry Charlie, China has a different notion of the world. They have always had their eyes on the whole process....and they didn't create this plan today. They have been sending people to school and positioning them in major industries all around the world for quite a while, carefully getting the knowledge and experience they need to bring it all back home.

But after experiencing the taste of life in a free and expanding US or European country, why would they bring their skills and knowledge back "home"?

....come on people, China is the fastest growing place on earth right now...it is the wild west of the east! It is gold rush time in China, and who wasn't lured out west in the USA by the gold rush.

There are articles that talk about China having an 8% growth rate, but I keep reading news briefs about growth in the 9% and above range! (double digit growth has been reported over and over) That is exciting growth compared to the 2.6% we have here in the USA!

They have a statistic called Purchasing power parity, and they say China is very close to the USA already when you look at things from that perspective!

Here is an article I saw on the net that talk about China creating a new ultra-high density DVD standard that is supposed to blow away Bluray and HD-DVD. They say they want to make it a standard in China....well, this isn't the first standard they have tried to create in China. (going against the current world standards) They have apparently begin creating their own Cell ular system standards, their own WiFi networking standards, and their own encryption protocols.

None of it has stuck yet because they are still the 3rd largest market in the world....but you mark my words, when they get to #1, or even #2 with the kind of growth that are having....the world standards will be theirs. (we will have no option but to accept cell phones with Chinese keypads)

You heard it here first......(Ok, probably not first....but you heard it!)