Voice of America Video reports that retailers have a poor Christmas 2008.....

The worst holiday shopping season since 1969.....we had 75,000 stores close in 2008.....expect the same number to close in the first half of 2009 alone.

Oh brother...unemployment is on the rise!

Hearing about the economy going south is only bad for two reasons.....it hurts to see investments I have take it on the chin.....but even worst, it is hard to imagine possibly being laid off.

Cash flow is the key to life's finances....and having a job makes so much possible.

Even if you have savings.....those are supposed to be for retirement....and I'm not quite at that point!

So this article talks about mounting job losses....and how we are already into the sort of unemployment that characterizes a recession.

Hang on tight people.....

Today's Sad News......nothing too new I suppose.....

The news headlines below are really nothing new.....but when I read them today, I realized how messed up things really are.

I think I have commented in earlier BLOG posts that things seemed to be sinking yet stocks seemed to be floating along.....unaffected.

Well, today the market is a bit choppy, but nothing compared to the sort of headlines we are seeing as I type. (below)

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Top Stories

As of 27 minutes ago

Consumer Confidence Drops to Lowest Point in 5 Years- AP

Soaring gas prices and weaker job prospects made Americans gloomier about the economy in April, sending a widely watched measure of consumer sentiment to a five-year low, a private research group said Tuesday.

• U.S. Home Foreclosure Rate Soars 112 Percent- AP
• Home Prices Plunge at Record Rate of 12.7 Percent- AP
• Stocks Lower With Investors Wary of Consumer Data, Fed- AP
• Merck Hit Hard By Cholesterol Drug Rejection- Reuters
• Millionaires More Bullish on Stocks, Real Estate- Reuters
• Up For Grabs: $42 Bln of Newspaper Ad Revenue- Tech Ticker
• Bernanke's Burden: Way Beyond This Week's Fed Meeting-

Buffet thinks the downturn will be longer than people expect.....

I liked the graphic above because I think the problems we have a nation have to do with each and every one of us....OK, perhaps thats too broad a net....but it has to do with our collective mindset.

The mindset I am refering to is our "get it now, pay later" instant gratification actions that we have clung to as a country for the past 20 years or so. I'd say that savings has been a passe concept since about the '80s, and that the way to make money has been to go out on a limb and "risk" things on margin.

Ok, the margin might not be exactly defined as it might be with a brokerage account....it might mean mortgaing your house to the hilt and using that money to say buy another house or even worst, the creature comforts you want.

Well, as the above poster indicates.....none of us thinks we had anything to do with our slide...."my effect is but a pisshole in the snow".....but together, we can cover a lot of area!

I'm not exactly sure that this is WHY Warren Buffet believes the downturn is going to be worst and of a longer than everyone thinks.....but when I heard that, I felt he was right.

What do we need to do to protect ourselves thought.....at least those of us with some savings.

I just don't know.....it is a scary thought though.

Here are the words of Buffet himself:

"This is not a field of specialty for me, but my general feeling is that the recession will be longer and deeper than most people think," Buffett said. "This will not be short and shallow.

"I think consumers are feeling gas and food prices," he added, "and not feeling they've got a lot of money for other things."

Slow and Steady wins the race? (didn't I post about this before?? :-)

I was reading through by list of finance BLOGS when I came across this one....and I have to day I was very pleased to read it.

First of all. most people are doom and gloomers....and I guess I'm also not at the top of the heap of positive people when you start talking about our economy...the exporting of jobs....and the value of our currency......but there are bright spots all around that we should be able to point to.

I was shocked to see this article suggest that 1 out of 3 people in the USA are Millionaires....that is, they have a net worth above $1,000,000. That's outstanding....and it is even more interesting to see that these people did it "the old fashioned way"....they "SAVED" it.

No venture capital start-ups.....no gambling in Vegas......no leveraged stock buys......just spend less than you make and invest the surplus "for a rainy day".

This actually makes perfect sense when you consider another statistic......did you know that the great depression of 1929 only had unemployment rates of about 25%. Now that's high for sure, but given what you read about times back then and all the rationing and shortages that were in existance.....a full 75% of the families were working. (Though I am not sure that tracked "underemployment" as they might today.)

But then if you read other BLOGS like this one and then this one that describe the workings of the 1929 depression, you will note that they talk about the great disparity of income and net worth that further caused problems. Apparently wages increased 9% in the 10 years after 1929, but that incease was not across the board, but heavily skewed toward those making more. (the top 1% wage earner made a 75% increase while the average factory worker only 8% while their productivity increased 32% for the same period)

So what to do you ask? I guess the first thing......stay out of the debt snare. What to do with savings....this is the $64,000 question, isn't it.

Will there be an Economic Tipping Point?

I read in Warren Brussees BLOG that he thinks is theory about a depression in 2007 is coming closer into view. He admits that he might be as much as a year off, but he is still seeing his prediction from his book unfolding.

His BLOG seems to imply a sort of economic "tipping point"....a point in time where one characteristic of the economy changes past a sort of inflection point whereby any further change in that parameter causes a much larger change (an avalanch of sorts) in another response.

He sees the credit crisis, and crashing cost of the housing market as the catalyst for a fast decline in consumer spending, which kills our GDP quite quickly (since it accounts for 70% of it) and sets off a series of chain reactions which further closes down credit....etc....etc.....we have a closed loop cycle that now feedsback on itself.

Is he right?

Who knows....all I know is that it seems to me that the death of an economy is probably much like that of a human, and I hope you don't get grossed out by this, but I witnessed someone very close to me pass away, and they did not go easily.

No, they obviously loved life, and wanted so much to keep it....and their struggle was very long and hard. They eventually were overcome and passed on, but thei very last breaths were not easy and I could sense their final struggle to stay with us.

I see the economy in the same way.....it isn't going to go easily. It is going to try every way it can to survive and grow healthy again. It is probabably not as dynamic or resourcefull as the human body, but it surely isn't any more willing to roll over and die either.

But I'm thinking that the death throws of an economy will be no less violent than that of a human holding on to their last breath.....for our economy is after all still driven by humans. There are enough of us who don't give up easy...so I expect any downturn to be perhaps fast.

Like the depression in 1929....or even some of the other market crashes and panics before and after.

Let's hope Warren is wrong....let's hope he is WAY OFF and in his assesment.

And if he is right....let's hope all of us have the common sense to know that money doesn't make the world go around, and that there is still so much more to live for. Many people didn't know that around 1929....I'd like to think we can learn from the past.