Keeping an eye on Michael Kantro's HOPE framework

 The HOPE framework is the creation of Micheal Kantro, CIO of Piper Sandler. Michael’s HOPE model looks at Housing, New Orders (ISM), Corporate Profits, and Employment and according to his back testing, the economy doesn't fall into recession until all four of these metrics peak and fall off.

Well, it isn't yet dramatic, but I have a few friends who have recently been laid off, and I think we can see some of the companies in the US shedding employees. I think those numbers will start increasing in the reports for Feb.....but even the last report showed a recent increase.

We shall see how things progress, and whether Michael Kantro's HOPE framework has real predictive power.