Saturday, October 27, 2018

Hindsight always shows us the "Elephant In The Room" that we admit seeing all along!


When the .COM crash hit, we could all look back at what was then the "obvious" over-excesses of Internet Company Stock values and viola......it was OBVIOUS we all knew there was an elephant in the room.

After the 2008 Housing Crisis was upon us, we could all look back and see the various "Liar Loans" and we ALL had friends who would use their homes as piggy banks for consumption ends because "house prices never go down". (BTW: Some did warn) Yes, we had all recognized that elephant in the room.

So maybe we have to ask ourselves constantly about any elephants we might see....and whether they might be finding their way into our tents. (as camels have been known to sneak in)

How about this obvious elephant.....debt!?! Yes, government debt for sure. College load debt.....even car loan debt for some as loans are being stretched out to 7 years.

I think that just when Sun Microsystems Stock sat at $140 per a share and no one could explain what that was reasonable......we have to ask how we can continue to pile on public and private debt and think this is OK.

If we were smart in 2001, we would have legged out of the stock market slowly so as to keep some of our "powder dry" (while still sticking in a bit to take advantage of the stupid level of rising stock prices)

But what to do now? I can't imagine it will be good to be a creditor to those borrowing, but is it GOOD to layer on some debt while we can? How will it all fall apart?

I assume that if we have a debt crisis, that getting debt will be impossible. But I am not sure I would assume that having debt at that point will be a comfortable situation either as the powers that be work to scrape money owned from any and all places it exists.


I don't have the answer......but I think debt is the current elephant in the room. How that elephant ends up destroying the room is not clear, but I believe it has the power to do so quickly and like with an actual elephant, if we were in that room we would likely be powerless to stop it.



The elephant above looks calm enough.....and while he doesn't have to be "mad", he clearly has been shown to NOT know his own strength. Be careful if you go anywhere near that room. (We always think we can control these elephants)