Friday, January 15, 2016

"I will pay you tomorrow for a hamburger today".....or how the stock market was juiced up by the central banks!

Very interesting comments about the markets being "juiced up" by FED policy.....and here we are today....what now?

Tuesday, January 12, 2016

Here we go again!
(and I should get back to posting here...things are getting interesting / scary once again)

China is the bogieman!
Well, here we are again.....looking at investment issues that are not totally adding up.......and I would say that this is a bit like what happened in the .COM crash......things are not adjusting as we might expect.

So what do I mean......just take OIL prices......we have oil crashing down to about $32 a barrel even though many world producers have production costs above $40-$50 a barrel....and so you would expect supply to go I understand that while the development of new wells has stopped, the shuddering of wells has NOT happened and so oil production output continues to rise....there seems to be a "war" of sorts. (perhaps Saudi Arabia is not so thrilled with Iran entering the market)

But Energy is but one area that seems to be at war.....take a look at the various currencies around the world....they all seem to be in  race to the bottom as they all struggle to devalue, I guess in an attempt to make their country more competitive for exports. But when this pattern of devaluation happens everywhere, it essentially happens NO WHERE....yet the money supply goes up and ALL currencies lose value.

Well...we hear that China is the "bad guy"....but Jim Rogers is not so sure about that!

Check out this interview with Jim Rogers.



Tuesday, January 15, 2013

Decision Time Once Again

So our economy has been on a fairly wild ride since perhaps the year 2000......even earlier when you consider issues in 1987 and even back with the inflation of the '70s.

But in the past decade we lived through two bit bubble collapes.....the .COM bubble, and then the housing bubble.

So what was the big issue in the last bubble.....well, how about a debt that could not be sustained. That debt was in the hands of home buyers and that was then semi-transfered to banks and the government when homes went into the toilet.

But did we mop up that debt and get everything back in balance.....well, not really. In fact, I would say that you can not fix a problem of debt by adding even more debt. So I would say that we have essentially papered it all over for how.

Now what? Well....I think we have been blowing up another bubble....the bubble is now in our currency.....we have printed money like drunken sailors.....and if we are nor on our toes, it will fall on us like a lead balloon!

So now what? What do we savers invest in? Our money gets nothing in the bank, and I fear the money printing will cause inflation! What do we do to escape that? about creating some sort of productive about owning a business?\
That is what I think the best protection against the loss of savings, the development of a productive capacity....a skill or kind of useful work that people would pay for. We will see money printing taking a toll on the evaluation of our money.....that is, we will see inflation.

With our county is looking for is productive capacity....a skill or job that is in needed and people would barter for. Having a skill will be a good trade for the goods and services of all

Saturday, February 18, 2012

Where do er go from here? (Who will lead us???)

Just a quick post of a recent meeting where US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner admits to Representative Paul Ryan that the current proposed budget plan is a sort term plan at best. That sounds fine until you realize that it is really a matter of kicking the can down the road.....that this is NOT leadership. That is is exactly how we got into the mess we did in 2008.....that this is the problem that was laid out for us by Ross Perot and Morrie Taylor back in an election primary in 1996!

At that point I can see why people resisted getting excited about it all....but we have just survived a problem decade, are living with an imploding Europe as I type and have our debt problems staring us square in the kisser.....the TIME IS NOW for action!

Now what? I suggest we deal with out problems and not bury our heads in the sand.

As for what we personally do besides vote for people addressing things.....I suggest diversification of assets and around the world!

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Saturday, October 29, 2011

Another interesting video and some of my thoughts on investing.....

This video talks about a vision of how America pulls out of our current slide....I find Mark Dow to be well thought out and very bright. (I wish I could look so deeply at the big picture as people like Dow do)

Watch the video and then continue down to some thoughts I have on this, and how I am thinking about the future and my own savings capital.

Well, I also believe the USA will continue our slide and continue to lose our importance in the world. This will result in higher prices because of our slipping dollar and our slipping value to the world.

So what to do.....first, it depends on how we pull ourselves out of what I think of as the 'Occupy X Inequality". I think the Occupy Wall Street  simply want to strip the wealth from anyone who has it and give it to anyone who does not. If this is the way the country decides to go, then the obvious answer is to get out of dodge.....not so much flee the country, but make investments elsewhere where things might be sheltered or hidden from the grabbing claws of those doing the "redistribution"....I hate to think like this, but I also think I have done the right thing over my life in saving, and my gains are in no way "ill-gotten" like you would expect anyone to do, I want to keep them.

Having said that, I hope the government tries to try another tack....let's try to "grow" our way out of things.....let's make jobs by giving incentives to business in areas we so badly need.....areas we might be able to lead the world in.

So I am thinking I need to convert my savings to some sort of business....what that is, I am not sure.

Energy is something I think we will all see changes to in the future....I am thinking about some sort of wood pellet business. Perhaps dove-tail that will a recycling gig....but I don't want to get too deep into something I have not fully grocked out.

But the concept is the make money, one needs to take risk, and to add value. The value I see for the future is to create something....and create a business around that which adds value. (here and abroad...)

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Interesting perspective about where the problems lie......

The problems of our economy is an interesting thing to think about. How things have gone bad is not so obvious....the whys anyways. This video describes one opinion.....and then if that is true, this article makes me wonder if we are not in for a world of hurt.

Saturday, October 15, 2011

Simple video describing our debt crisis....

Yes, it is a simplified explanation and it skips over all sorts of details and lots of other inputs....but it is good to simplify at times which might help us consider our own future investment options.

Then there is this video, explaining the debt crisis in Europe.....  :-)

Then there is the video on the Crisis of Credit.....explaining the cycle we have when the credit system fails.

Now what am I doing......where have I been!?!??

Well, I suppose I simply slipped away from my computer and perhaps ended up too attached to things like FACEBOOK.

But, I have never left my life of following the investment world, the economy and the employment scene.

I remain employed by the same company.....well, except for it being acquired by Oracle honestly, things have changed significantly since they bought us, but for the most part, for the better. We are making money and that was tough for us when we were Sun Microsystems.

My investments have changed a bit too....I added a 2nd Financial Advisor and I have taken some of my money under my own wing. No, no...I am not day trading. No, I simply play in a different arena, and a place I can't find an advisor to play in so I do it to broaden my diversification.

Without using money, let me toss out my investments as they sit today.

Financial Advisor #1:
Holds about 45% of my money
Invests in Bond and Equity funds
  • 70% Bond Funds
  • 20% Equity Funds
  • 10% Cash
Financial Advisor #2:
Hold about 20% of my investments
Invests in three different REITs and Annuity of Equities and Bond funds (started as a 50/50 split and I consider the REITS to be my toe into real estate)

Work 401K Fund: (self directed)
Holds about 20% of my investments
  • 70% in Bond Funds
  • 30% in Equities including maybe 15% in Oracle Stock
My Self-Directed Currency/Commodities Investments:
Holds about 15% of my investments
  • 70% of it are in currencies or CD's in other currencies
  • 30% of it is in Gold
I hold the following currencies (I mostly consider this CA$H)
  • Brazilian Real
  • Swiss Franc
  • Australian Dollar
  • Euro
  • Chinese Yuan
  • US Dollar
I like this level of diversification as I have it spread across investment people, across asset classes, and across products / markets. Right now my Gold is holding it's own because I made a huge gain on a sum I bought at about $800, but I recently about in at about $1720 as I think world economic issues will get less stable and GOLD might be a harbor for safety....but one never knows because it has been on a ride straight up for a long time.

I feel I have been doing well...but I also feel inflation is low. I worry that inflation is really on the rise, and staying still means losing. Also, I think the future of taxes is uncertain.....let me revise and extend that remark, I think it is more certain that I'd like to think....TAXES for people who have ANY money will go up. They have to, because our country is in debt people w/o money can't exactly pay. (makes me feel STUPID for being a saver at times)

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Thursday, October 08, 2009

Have I found another "Dr. Doom" that I might want to follow? (My new boss, Larry Ellison)