Thursday, March 01, 2007

Where do you think the market is heading?

If you asked me this about 3 months ago, I would have told you there would be a correction. How can I prove that....well, I did move from an 80/10% equity to bond split to a 50/50% split back then.....and I was sort of kicking myself for the past few months.

Last night I felt like Einstein.....

I'm not totally sure what suddenly spooked people. The idea that the American economy was slowing....that's not a new concept. The fact that the Chinese economy can not sustain an 11% growth rate.....heck, they even said that many months ago too.

These are some of the things that spooked me, along with China's position to sell some of their dollars and the whole world sort of getting skittish about the dollar. We have also experienced a number ob bubble or bubble-like situation from the .BOMB crash in 2001 to the housing meltdown currently under way.

This notion of a soft landing always struck me as odd....sort of like seeking a slow core meltdown of a nuclear reactor as opposed to an uncontrolled fusion seems much worst than the other, but neither is at all pleasant!

So now I watch oil prices sliding up....I see record numbers of people going bankrupt....I see housing sales in the toilet with the nations largest builder explaining away a 70% drop in profits.
I see jobless numbers looking ok, but also knowing some of that is bogus because people fall off the unemployment rolls and then cease to count in the statistics.

So I'm happy with my 50/50% split for now. I had some money coming available that I was going to place in a more aggressive instrument, but I think I have decided that slow and steady wins the race!

Onward and upward!

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Great reading

4:00 PM EDT  
Blogger kayvon karimi said...

12:44 PM EST  
Blogger kayvon karimi said...

12:44 PM EST  

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