Saturday, February 03, 2018

I got lucky....sort of....I only wish I could invest in a Crystal Ball


Well, let me get past the "lucky" part first......I sold ALL my USA stock positions (in the 30% money I control) on Thursday, January 25th. The market topped on January 26th, and has slid a bit since then. (most days down, maybe one or two up)

I did make one possible SLIP two days ago when I bought a position at $10.92 in Ford Motor Company, when I was pulled in by what I thought was low price and their 5.6% dividend yield. (let's hope that wasn't too stupid, since it is currently sunk to $10.62) But that was not a lot of money relative to the chunk I took to cash.

Yes, I did feel the market was way overvalued.....but I have felt this way for about two years! I had thought to pull out twice before, but I talked myself out of it.....why didn't I listen this time? (I actually didn't even try to talk myself out...) In fact, my last thoughts were: 
"Bulls make money, bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered."
So I was lucky enough to pull the trigger......

Having said that....I still have money managed by someone, and they have money in stock and bond funds.....and I have NOT looked at their value since the slide began. I trust their judgement, and this might sound "stupid", but part of the reason I have my money management split-up (now between myself and a manager) is for diversification of thought. Yes, I try to have diversification of assets, but I also think there is value in diversification of thought.


Yes, if things "hit the fan", I will certainly "call an audible" and tell them to get my investments OUT OF DODGE (and Ford I suppose).....but that moment has not come just yet.

Also, another part of the money I manage is in foreign stocks and currencies (a Russian Ruble Bond, Chinese Yuan and a touch of gold)....and quite frankly, the currency stuff is paying off well lately. Should I worry...you tell me?!?

Is this sort of diversification a good strategy, I think so.....you might not....I don't think there is a single way to get results, and sometimes you need to place more than one bet on the roll of the wheel.

Let's hope that old acronym for Ford (FOUND ON ROAD DEAD) is wrong, and the second one (FIRST ON RACE DAY) turns out to be right after all!

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