Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Warning....yesterday's metioric stock rise might be a "bear trap" set to catch bulls!

Please note that the Dow Jones Industrial average rose11.1% yesterday, and I am sure it is enough to make a lot of people thrilled.

I am certain that many have proclaimed...."The Bottom Has Arrived".

Well, take a look at the spreadsheet above. You will notice that our 11.1% gain falls in between rows 4 and 5....which means it is only the fourth largest single day percent gain. (though it was the largest total point gain)

But if you look at the above table more closely, you will see that nine of the ten big gain days came DURING the Great Depression!

Yes, the market crash happened in 1929, but the market didn't really bottom out until about 1933.....and all of those big gain days happened in between. (OK, the #1 day might have happened as the market was climbing out of it all...but it was right in there)

What is my point you ask.....stock buyer beware!

Yesterday's market gain might just be a bear trap set and ready to trap people.....I suspect this is one of the reasons so many lost money in the depression....."trying to pick the bottom".....which must have looked to have come several times over between 1929 and 1933.

Look at the fundamentals of the economy.....look at actual things like unemployment, profits, foreclosures, people and companies going bankrupt. This is not the time to "double down" at the roulette table....at least I don't think so.

Check out the rocky ride the stock market had in the great depression in the graphic below.
Lots of great opportunities if you are day trader....but even then, the spikes seem so quick and abrupt.....I suspect it is even difficult for them.

Be safe with your retirement money.....if you have money you would normally take to Las Vegas....go for it...but be prepared to lose it.

There might be a "bear trap" out there ready to *SNAP*!

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