Measure Twice, Cut Once (Money and the Economy)

Another interesting video and some of my thoughts on investing.....

2011-10-29T22:46:00.000-04:00

This video talks about a vision of how America pulls out of our current slide....I find Mark Dow to be well thought out and very bright. (I wish I could look so deeply at the big picture as people like Dow do)

Watch the video and then continue down to some thoughts I have on this, and how I am thinking about the future and my own savings capital.

Well, I also believe the USA will continue our slide and continue to lose our importance in the world. This will result in higher prices because of our slipping dollar and our slipping value to the world.

So what to do.....first, it depends on how we pull ourselves out of what I think of as the 'Occupy X Inequality". I think the Occupy Wall Street simply want to strip the wealth from anyone who has it and give it to anyone who does not. If this is the way the country decides to go, then the obvious answer is to get out of dodge.....not so much flee the country, but make investments elsewhere where things might be sheltered or hidden from the grabbing claws of those doing the "redistribution"....I hate to think like this, but I also think I have done the right thing over my life in saving, and my gains are in no way "ill-gotten".....so like you would expect anyone to do, I want to keep them.

Having said that, I hope the government tries to try another tack....let's try to "grow" our way out of things.....let's make jobs by giving incentives to business in areas we so badly need.....areas we might be able to lead the world in.

So I am thinking I need to convert my savings to some sort of business....what that is, I am not sure.

Energy is something I think we will all see changes to in the future....I am thinking about some sort of wood pellet business. Perhaps dove-tail that will a recycling gig....but I don't want to get too deep into something I have not fully grocked out.

But the concept is the same.....to make money, one needs to take risk, and to add value. The value I see for the future is to create something....and create a business around that which adds value. (here and abroad...)

Interesting perspective about where the problems lie......

2011-10-29T22:24:00.000-04:00

The problems of our economy is an interesting thing to think about. How things have gone bad is not so obvious....the whys anyways. This video describes one opinion.....and then if that is true, this article makes me wonder if we are not in for a world of hurt.

Simple video describing our debt crisis....

2011-10-15T23:40:00.002-04:00

Yes, it is a simplified explanation and it skips over all sorts of details and lots of other inputs....but it is good to simplify at times which might help us consider our own future investment options.

Then there is this video, explaining the debt crisis in Europe..... :-)

Then there is the video on the Crisis of Credit.....explaining the cycle we have when the credit system fails.

Now what am I doing......where have I been!?!??

2011-10-15T00:30:00.001-04:00

Well, I suppose I simply slipped away from my computer and perhaps ended up too attached to things like FACEBOOK.

But, I have never left my life of following the investment world, the economy and the employment scene.

I remain employed by the same company.....well, except for it being acquired by Oracle Corporation.....so honestly, things have changed significantly since they bought us, but for the most part, for the better. We are making money and that was tough for us when we were Sun Microsystem s.

My investments have changed a bit too....I added a 2nd Financial Advisor and I have taken some of my money under my own wing. No, no...I am not day trading. No, I simply play in a different arena, and a place I can't find an advisor to play in so I do it to broaden my diversification.

Without using money, let me toss out my investments as they sit today.

Financial Advisor #1:

Holds about 45% of my money
Invests in Bond and Equity funds

70% Bond Funds
20% Equity Funds
10% Cash

Financial Advisor #2:

Hold about 20% of my investments
Invests in three different REITs and Annuity of Equities and Bond funds (started as a 50/50 split and I consider the REITS to be my toe into real estate)

Work 401K Fund: (self directed)
Holds about 20% of my investments

70% in Bond Funds
30% in Equities including maybe 15% in Oracle Stock

My Self-Directed Currency/Commodities Investments:

Holds about 15% of my investments

70% of it are in currencies or CD's in other currencies
30% of it is in Gold

I hold the following currencies (I mostly consider this CA$H)

Brazilian Real
Swiss Franc
Australian Dollar
Euro
Chinese Yuan
US Dollar

I like this level of diversification as I have it spread across investment people, across asset classes, and across products / markets. Right now my Gold is holding it's own because I made a huge gain on a sum I bought at about $800, but I recently about in at about $1720 as I think world economic issues will get less stable and GOLD might be a harbor for safety....but one never knows because it has been on a ride straight up for a long time.

I feel I have been doing well...but I also feel inflation is low. I worry that inflation is really on the rise, and staying still means losing. Also, I think the future of taxes is uncertain.....let me revise and extend that remark, I think it is more certain that I'd like to think....TAXES for people who have ANY money will go up. They have to, because our country is in debt people w/o money can't exactly pay. (makes me feel STUPID for being a saver at times)

Have I found another "Dr. Doom" that I might want to follow? (My new boss, Larry Ellison)

2009-10-08T20:28:00.002-04:00

Things are getting worst slower.....but at what cost?

2009-08-07T01:22:00.003-04:00

This video attempts to give us a visualization of what a Trillion Dollars is....

The Economic Downturn as told with the game of Monopoly

2009-07-06T22:05:00.001-04:00

Jim Rogers....Opportunities all over, but this is the Asian Century

2009-06-17T19:06:00.002-04:00

Jim Roger clearly believe that debtor nations will NOT be the way to attract future profits. He suggests that no one flocks to debtors. (good point)

This is a general question and answer session that describes his focus on China.

Trump is ALWAYS Bullish on Vegas!

2009-06-17T18:11:00.000-04:00

BRIC Counrties go SHOPPING!

2009-06-17T18:07:00.001-04:00

So would these currencies end up in the basket of currencies?

2009-06-17T18:00:00.001-04:00

One video, lots of inflation talk from two of my Dr. Dooms!

2009-06-13T10:09:00.002-04:00

Two Doctor Doom's for the price of one video.

So it seems that we might have high inflation....so they say, and I have heard Jim Rogers say too. Now what do we do...I mean you and me, regular people....regular investors?

Rogers suggests commodities as the place to invest. I have heard Faber say similar things too.

Things to ponder.

"Head fake recovery"? Are we tryng to pump-up the volume to pump up a bubble?

2009-06-13T09:53:00.004-04:00

This is a good video....a nice discussion with Jim Rogers one of my Dr. Doom I follow...but the other guest, Jerry Lowe, makes perhaps the best points!

Check out the 4:52 minute mark for his "Head Fake Recovery" comment.

Marc Faber speaks on current and future trends

2009-05-12T18:10:00.002-04:00

FROM YOUTUBE: Dr. Marc Faber brings us up to speed on markets, and takes a look at the months ahead. With HoweStreet.com's Tom Jeffries.

Wow...Faber was no Bush fan, but it seems he isn't any bigger fan of Obama either!
Check out his strong negative assessment at the end of this next video.

Jim Rogers is getting worried about the Dollar.....

2009-05-12T01:58:00.002-04:00

Jim Rogers Tallks about The Ugly Future

2009-05-06T00:26:00.003-04:00

Roubini makes a nice summary of out path to the present issues in our economy....

2009-03-29T10:43:00.004-04:00

Noriel Roubini outlines a very straight forward description of the events leading up to our present situation. He notes that the regulators have solved the excesses of one bubble by creating yet another. "Serial bubble makers".

According to Roubini, if the economy is a party, the fed is the controller of the punch bowl.....and when the fed saw the partiers getting a little to drunk and going into an unsustainable bubble position, they should have taken away the punch bowl....but they instead added volka and whisky...causing us to "fix" that bubble with yet another and larger one somewhere else.

He thinks we might be out of places to build bubbles, and it might be time to address the problem.

These videos show Roubini's thoughts on the economy going forward....

2009-03-10T02:27:00.002-04:00

Another Jim Rogers Interview.....broken record, yes....but still an interesting perspective ....

2009-03-04T19:37:00.004-05:00

More from Jim Rogers.....he believes in markets and letting markets pick the winners and losers.......not bad, if you are on the non-losing side I suppose!

Jim Rogers doesn't sound like Noriel Roubini....more like Peter Schiff.

2009-03-04T18:54:00.003-05:00

It sounds like a "let them fail" vs "Pump them up" when Roubini talk about Nationalizing the banks. (though both agree that Zombie banks are a very bad thing!)

What do you think?

I'm worried that people who have been savers will be the "suppliers" of the money needed for the bail-outs. It doesn't seem to fair to make those who have been responsible to pay fop those who maxed out their credit cards. (or used their house as a giant ATM over the years)

I suppose I am sporting more of a Peter Schiff / Jim Rogers mindset.

Interesting Interview: HANNITY SPEECHS WITH TRUMP ABOUT THE OBAMA ECONOMY (warning, conservative points of view here! :-)

2009-03-04T18:13:00.002-05:00

I am not sure what I think of Trump as he is such a multi-faceted guy....good at business, but perhaps a better showman....so I am not always sure when the business ends and the Marketing guy begins....but he makes some good points and have interesting insight.

Three Top Economists Agree 2009 Worst Financial Crisis Since Great Depression

2009-03-04T17:50:00.001-05:00

Now what....is 2009 really a lost cause?

Sound familar? Pehaps replace Wall Street with Housing....replace 1929 with perhaps 2001?

2009-03-01T12:30:00.003-05:00

I know people think of 2008 as the start....perhaps it started with what we called the .COM bust....with a slight recovery via further inflation of the housing bubble.

Note the quote: "I knew it was time to get out when shoe shine boys are giving stock tips".....think about housing profits and how "average" people like you and me were able to take profits from their house as though it was a big-money-stuffed ATM...as though we were all such savvy investors. (didn't we see we were not?)

We shall see...check out the video:

I like the idea of there needing to be a Catalyst to get economies going....and also, "good news" from Roubini at the end of this video!

2009-03-01T11:59:00.002-05:00

The concept that we need to come up with something to invest in....something that will add value and be WANTED and NEEDED by people...people of the USA for sure, but perhaps we need to consider people of the world.

If we can create that "product" or "service", there WILL be investment to make that grow. We seem to be trying to "push" the rope to make lending happen....perhaps the lending will happen if we concentrate on something that will create "pull".

Interesting perspective from someone who has always marched to a different drummer - Felix Rohabyn on the Financial Crisis

2009-03-01T11:49:00.003-05:00

China: Out buying things at a Bargain Price!

2009-02-23T13:38:00.000-05:00

Bill Gross gives us some words of wisdom......

2009-02-12T18:06:00.001-05:00

I think this was from about a week ago or so....

From the clip post itself:
Live! From Newport Beach, CA: Interview with PIMCO Managing Director Bill Gross: Says Economy Will Slump into a "Mini-Depression" [FULL CLIP - 18:40] (On the Economy)

More words of wisdom from Jim Rogers....

2009-02-12T17:58:00.002-05:00

It seems that people are either totally FOR this huge round of Government spending (like Roubini), or against (like Rogers).

But both seem to be against the propping up of Zombie banks!

Recovery in 2011....at least someone is giving us a good outlook albeit far away!

2009-02-10T18:59:00.000-05:00

Is the sinking economy and whithering 401K values changing your vacation plans?

2009-02-10T18:19:00.003-05:00

Jim Rogers Adds His Own Form of Cheery Opinion....on workd currencies

2009-02-10T00:22:00.000-05:00

Another "Cheery" perspective from Peter Schiff

2009-02-10T00:15:00.001-05:00

More Doom and Gloom....but an interesting perspective indeed!

2009-02-10T00:02:00.001-05:00

Even when thinking of the economy, we need to laugh every now and then.....

2009-02-03T01:04:00.001-05:00

Ok...so tough times can sometimes be a time to grin....

RAISING KEYNES - song parody from versusplus.com about OBAMA & THE STIMULUS

The US Economy Apparently Continues to Slide....

2009-01-28T17:52:00.003-05:00

BTW...the economy is still sliding, though the stock market is at least going in a sort of sideways trajectory now going up some days, and down others.

Here is a video report of what the Federal Reserve thinks......still not a pretty outlook saying that the "potential downside risk for the end of 2009 is significant".

Worst job losses since 1945......now what?

2009-01-10T02:35:00.000-05:00

Three Dr. Doom's give their 2009 outlook

2009-01-10T01:51:00.002-05:00

A biased video for sure.....but it does look as though people like Schiff were right....

2008-12-30T16:46:00.002-05:00

Yes....this video clearly has a bias, but I do remember Schiff saying these things....so whether by luck or knowledge, he seems to have been correct.

Now, another guy who was talking about the bad stuff we are now in....Nouriel Roubini, economics professor at NYU Stern School.

He suggests that we can just write off 2009 as the year of global recession.

More from Roubini today:

From YOUTUBE and Voice of America: A group called Teach For America saw a 36 percent spike in applications

2008-12-30T15:29:00.001-05:00

This year a group called Teach For America saw ...

This year a group called Teach For America saw a 36 percent spike in applications. The organization recruits college graduates to help fill a teacher shortage in economically disadvantaged areas of America. The organization's leaders say some college graduates are committing to public service because of the economic downturn but also many feel a renewed spirit of public service.
VOA's Brian Padden recently visited a Teach for America member who says teaching is much harder than she anticipated -- but changing the world is never easy.

Here is a shocker.....bad economy is affecting college graduates!

2008-12-30T15:24:00.002-05:00

A news article from the Voice of America!

New North American Union: Security and Prosertity Partnership! (funded by the USA?)

2008-12-30T15:13:00.003-05:00

How can this stuff actually happen.....so far under the radar? (can it possibly be true?)

Check out the US Government website if you still wonder.....
From the website:

SPP Background

The Security and Prosperity Partnership of North America (SPP) was launched in March of 2005 as a trilateral effort to increase security and enhance prosperity among the United States, Canada and Mexico through greater cooperation and information sharing.

This trilateral initiative is premised on our security and our economic prosperity being mutually reinforcing. The SPP recognizes that our three great nations are bound by a shared belief in freedom, economic opportunity, and strong democratic institutions.

The SPP provides the framework to ensure that North America is the safest and best place to live and do business. It includes ambitious security and prosperity programs to keep our borders closed to terrorism yet open to trade.

The SPP builds upon, but is separate from, our long-standing trade and economic relationships. It energizes other aspects of our cooperative relations, such as the protection of our environment, our food supply, and our public health.

Voice of America Video reports that retailers have a poor Christmas 2008.....

2008-12-30T15:08:00.002-05:00

The worst holiday shopping season since 1969.....we had 75,000 stores close in 2008.....expect the same number to close in the first half of 2009 alone.

The economic news continues to be bad.....

2008-12-30T15:00:00.001-05:00

It looks as though the rest of the world is looking forward to slow or almost non-existent growth next year......and being lead by the USA.

Note that this report does not indicate that China or India will be in recession in 2009.....only Japan, Europe and the USA.

Bill Crutchfield Speaks.....

2008-12-30T01:52:00.002-05:00

I just bought some car stereo equipment for my girlfriends son, and wondered if the place we bought it from would be around in a year. I mean we almost bought it from Circuit City or Best Buy and they seem to be straining under the weight of the present economic climate.

Then on the Crutchfield website ( the place I bought the stuff), I saw the following....which made me feel good!

Our valued customers,

The international financial crisis is weighing heavily on all of us. As consumers, one factor that we all need to consider is the stability of the companies with whom we do business. In the current economic climate, many retailers will stumble and some will even fail. For that reason, I personally want to explain Crutchfield’s unique situation.

For many years, I have been concerned about the growing credit bubble. It was obvious to me that it was unsustainable and that an inevitable day of reckoning would come. To protect our customers, our employees, and my family from the disastrous consequences of a financial meltdown, I positioned Crutchfield to withstand the worst. We became very frugal with how we spent money. We did not pay outlandish executive salaries and bonuses. We did not build fancy facilities. We did not expand our retail store operations. And we did not buy other companies. Instead, we worked extremely hard to improve how we serve our customers, while we managed every aspect of our business with excellence. Furthermore, we paid off all of our debt and accumulated cash reserves.

When shopping in times like these, you need to be certain that the retailer will be around to provide you with years of after-the-sale support. We know that you expect guarantees, warranties and promises of lifetime product support to be kept when you purchase with us – and I have positioned our company to deliver without compromise on all of these important elements. As retailers go, Crutchfield is a “Rock of Gibraltar.” We have no debt, a perfect credit rating and a legacy of fiscal prudence. Therefore, we will be around to serve you as we have served millions of customers for the past 34 years and throughout the last four recessions.

Purchasing from Crutchfield today means you are choosing a company that will help you use and enjoy your purchase now and in the future. I hope that you’ll give Crutchfield a chance to exceed your expectations. I thank you for your time and, most importantly, for doing business with Crutchfield.

Nice post on patience and getting ahead!

2008-12-30T01:43:00.005-05:00

The title of the BLOG post is:

"5 Things The Marshmallow Test Can Teach You About Money Management"

and it is found on "Millionaire Mommy Next Door" BLOG. It is a very good synopsis of how being able to "wait" for opportunity can mean all the difference in the end. (after compounding and other leverage has done its work)

Check it out....

Calculating Risk has an interesting graph comparing stock market crashes

2008-11-19T19:35:00.004-05:00

I look at the graph to the left and actually feel better about the market situation we are in. That is, until I think of all the other situations "around" the market crash.

You see, I was around for all those other crashes....and I remember a lot of angst about the market fall...but there were still plenty of positive things happening in the economy.

Yes....some bad stuff for sure....during 2001, there was the tech bubble, and Sept 11th.....all very bad...but many industries were fine, and the jobs of many were untouched.

Now....everything seems to be imploding, and EVERYONE is paying the piper as the government "spends our way out" of this mess as it "inflates" the battered credit markets......putting us even further into debt.

What a mess.....but as far as the market "fingerprint" looks....it isn't any worst. (NOT)

Do we have a "new" bubble?

2008-11-18T00:48:00.003-05:00

I might be a looking at things a big sideways.....but back when we were talking about "hard landing" vs "soft landing" for our economy....I always felt that talk was "code" meaning not whether or NOT we would crash....but whether we would do so with a thud.

Well, as I look back I feel we probably should have seen a "landing" of sorts perhaps in the 80's for this is when the us started down our slow slide of personal savings decline....and when our government debt began to climb. I think we were essentially cashing in our "wealth" for short term "bling".

We went from just not saving to creating a debt bubble around our homes now known as the housing bubble. Once again, we traded away long term value in our homes for quick cash....taking out home equity loans and mortgaging new homes to the max.

Now I see our economy stalled....and how do we try to "prop it up"? Well, our government is cranking up the printing press and handing out dollars to failing companies "too big to fail".

Well....I wonder if that isn't some form of "bubble" mentality working again where we basically bubble up the amount of money in circulation until someone notices and decides the dollar is valueless.

I think we will see the crash of the Dollar should the world move away from supporting the US debt and begins using some other currency we the standard for value.

Woe is the USA when that happens.....hello hyperinflation!

Even Weird Al Writes Songs on the Economy!

2008-10-28T02:31:00.001-04:00

Dooms Day opinions are everywhere.....

2008-10-25T03:29:00.002-04:00

Oh brother...unemployment is on the rise!

2008-10-23T19:34:00.005-04:00

Hearing about the economy going south is only bad for two reasons.....it hurts to see investments I have take it on the chin.....but even worst, it is hard to imagine possibly being laid off.

Cash flow is the key to life's finances....and having a job makes so much possible.

Even if you have savings.....those are supposed to be for retirement....and I'm not quite at that point!

So this article talks about mounting job losses....and how we are already into the sort of unemployment that characterizes a recession.

Hang on tight people.....

See how the old "bad guy" is the current "good guy".....today we need to SPEND FOR THE GOOD OF THE COUNTRY!

2008-10-22T19:42:00.001-04:00

Another Collapsing sector of the economy....the Anti-Bush Merchandise sector!

2008-10-22T18:50:00.001-04:00

Economists Warn Anti-Bush Merchandise Market Close To Collapse

CRASH DANCE - song parody on THE NATIONAL DEBT CEILING

2008-10-20T23:55:00.000-04:00

Gas Prices further evidence of economic downturn.....

2008-10-20T19:15:00.001-04:00

The Market is so Fickle....and looking for reasons to go up!

2008-10-20T18:37:00.005-04:00

Check out the market the past few days....it is going up, and pretty quickly too.

One can never be so sure....because the market has shown "counter tendencies" in the past....as recent as the first quarter of this year.

I guess the news today was that the credit crisis is loosening up....and the federal government is talking about yet another stimulus package.

So the market is going bonkers......

I looked at the Wall Street Journal and other news outlets of the past few days and I see the trajectory of things isn't quite as positive from my perspective.

So the market seems a little off to me again.....perhaps a way to make money by shorting the index in some way. I don't know.

Real Estate Blues

2008-10-16T01:01:00.000-04:00

Our bailout is a big one!

2008-10-14T23:16:00.002-04:00

According to this MSNBC article. the current spending of $250 billion is akin to about $1.6 billion 1932 dollars.

This is a lot of money, because the Reconstruction Finance Corp. (created by President Hoover) which was formed back then to do a similar thing during the Great Depression...invest in banks....they spent only $1.1 billion!

Given that the current $250 billion is only a drop in the $700 billion pool we call the bailout....well, then you can see that we are indeed using a big hammer! (compared to FDR during the Depression anyways)

Warning....yesterday's metioric stock rise might be a "bear trap" set to catch bulls!

2008-10-14T20:19:00.002-04:00

Please note that the Dow Jones Industrial average rose11.1% yesterday, and I am sure it is enough to make a lot of people thrilled.

I am certain that many have proclaimed...."The Bottom Has Arrived".

Well, take a look at the spreadsheet above. You will notice that our 11.1% gain falls in between rows 4 and 5....which means it is only the fourth largest single day percent gain. (though it was the largest total point gain)

But if you look at the above table more closely, you will see that nine of the ten big gain days came DURING the Great Depression!

Yes, the market crash happened in 1929, but the market didn't really bottom out until about 1933.....and all of those big gain days happened in between. (OK, the #1 day might have happened as the market was climbing out of it all...but it was right in there)

What is my point you ask.....stock buyer beware!

Yesterday's market gain might just be a bear trap set and ready to trap people.....I suspect this is one of the reasons so many lost money in the depression....."trying to pick the bottom".....which must have looked to have come several times over between 1929 and 1933.

Look at the fundamentals of the economy.....look at actual things like unemployment, profits, foreclosures, people and companies going bankrupt. This is not the time to "double down" at the roulette table....at least I don't think so.

Check out the rocky ride the stock market had in the great depression in the graphic below.
Lots of great opportunities if you are day trader....but even then, the spikes seem so quick and abrupt.....I suspect it is even difficult for them.

Be safe with your retirement money.....if you have money you would normally take to Las Vegas....go for it...but be prepared to lose it.

There might be a "bear trap" out there ready to *SNAP*!

Could this economic Crisis be due to a deep structural debt problem in our system?

2008-10-11T23:54:00.003-04:00

Check out the Comptroller General of the United States who has been sounding the warning bell about the USA debt problem. It is the same issue that Ross Perot, Paul Tsongas and a few other canaries in the coal mine.

Well, this is a pretty important and non-political person who has the job to that would KNOW this stuff....and here he is in these two videos telling it like it is.

Where to go now? (investment-wise that is)

2008-10-10T23:31:00.003-04:00

The stock market is quit messy....no, it is a darn slaughter house. In fact, I know people are carefully looking for the bottom, but I'm going to believe those who say it is impossible to time a bottom.....no need to right now, there doesn't seem to be one.

I have friends at work who are close to retiring and lose more and more each day. It is quite sad because they feel "trapped" by the market.....they have lost too much to get out now.

But I tell them that there is always more to lose....to get out whenever it feels like too much and get back in on the rally up. It will happen at some point....even if it is perhaps 4 years out as I worry it might be.

But that's not the point of my post.....what I am wondering is, what next?

I mean, unless we have total uncertainty and wicked deflation, sitting on cash isn't a great idea....because inflation is a slow moving cancer to savings.

In deflationary times, Cash is King.....and in inflationary times, Cash is Trash.

So for me, that is the high order question.....which are we facing?

At the moment, commodity prices are falling....not just oil and energy, but food and other things too. This seems like a great thing....especially with uncertain jobs....but that signals deflation, and that isn't a fun time.

Our economy is based on the flow of money....and actually on debt itself. When deflation sets in, it is very bad to have debt....

So the falling commodity prices seem to be signaling this....but since the economy is so much in flux, who knows if this is a real sustainable situation, or just some sort of "ploy" of the economy to get us to spend. (you know, that invisible hand and all)

If we have inflation....it makes sense to put your money to work, or suffer the ever-eroding loss of value over time. It is a dance of sorts....and the uncertainty we have clearly leads me to think that liquidity is really the key.....being able to cash in, and cash out is much more valuable in such unstable times.

Short term: Who knows where things are going.....so I like the idea of keeping my assets liquid. This way, I can move in any direction I want fairly quickly.

Long Term: I hope to see a constant pattern opening up.....and move accordingly. It might mean investing in property....it might mean buying a small business. It might be equities... who knows. But being liquid until things stabilize is the key.

Income: The most important thing in this time of "waiting", make sure to have an income. This is the biggest reason for thinking of perhaps owning a business....or maybe even rental property. But again....that sort of thing makes for very non-liquid investments......none of these for me until we have stability.

New dollar proposed after violent market ride of the past month....

2008-10-09T19:00:00.002-04:00

How to end up with $1 million in about a month while investing in today's market.....

2008-10-09T01:52:00.004-04:00

Start off with $3 million......

Yikes....the debt is so large, the debt clock is now too small!

2008-10-07T19:09:00.002-04:00

Check out this YOUTUBE video.....apparently the debt clock in NYC needs to be replaced because it is running out of room....the national debt is too large to fit on the clock.

The solution is NOT to lower the debt.....but to buy a bigger clock! (and do so on credit no doubt)

If it were only this easy......

2008-10-06T23:48:00.003-04:00

Yikes....I'd hate to see what the market would do if there was no bailout!

2008-10-06T23:10:00.002-04:00

Well, the economy seems to be contracting at an ever increasing rate. I hear that unemployment is up....layoffs were at a high last month. I see that oil seems to have fallen to a very low level of about $88 per barrel.

We all know about the credit crunch, and the $700 billion government bailout....yes, the news is bad, but holy cow, what is the stock market doing now.....the floor about fell out today and the market was down about 800 points at one point.....finishing down about 370 points and below 10,000.

Stock markets around the world were falling....so I suppose it made sense to ours to fall as well.

As I type this, about 11:30pm on the east coast...the Asian markets are down about 3.4% to 4.8%. What a mess!

We shall see what tomorrow brings. In the mean time....SELL, SELL, SELL.

OMG: $700 billion isn't enough?

2008-10-03T22:44:00.004-04:00

This afternoon the Senate version of the $700 billion bailout bill passed the house....and at that moment the stock market decided the take it's 20o point gains for the day and slide them into about a 158 point loss.

What happened? I thought there was much need and interest in this package by Wall Street.....I thought that until I read this article titled - "Credit markets to Washington: Bailout isn't enough".

What is going on here folks....have we just been had?

Was all this a sham....made up to extract $700 billion from taxpayers? I don't believe it.....or as the article notes.....perhaps the mass population of people (read that majority) who thought the bailout was wrong....well, maybe they were actually right!

We shall see.....hopefully we are finding our way out of the woods.....in the mean time, I'm thinking of investing in Mattress Makers......and perhaps coming up with a special patented design that remains comfortable being stuffed with greenbacks.

What do you think of this proposal?

2008-09-30T20:13:00.003-04:00

This isn't my idea....I just read about it in a BLOG which pointed to Dave Ramsey's webpage.

It is called "The Common Sense Plan", and I have heard people mention several of these proposals in the past few days.....I'm not sure I've seen them all put in one place.

I'm certainly no expert on these things.....but it does look like it might do similar things....."solidify" the sick mortgages that exist while not letting the people owing on them or those who they owe them too off the hook.

It seems to do things to "prop-up" the sagging housing market, but making it "profitable" to jump in and grab up things at low prices.

Sounds like an interesting idea....and what we need are ideas.....clever and sound thinking.

Tell me what you think?!!

Market Isn't Very Stable.....time to get to safety perhaps?

2008-09-30T19:43:00.005-04:00

Ok, so the equity market is bouncing like a yo-yo....everyone waiting for this magic bullet called the federal bailout plan.

I am not sure if this is a good or bad thing....I mean in the long run. I just don't know...but it seems to me that owning a bunch of defaulted homes can't be a good thing.

I'm also thinking that all that money creation must be causing inflation....but I don't know.

I don't like the general idea of the government bailing out companies and home owners who many of which were involved with loans that were just no viable.....where was their common sense?

On the other hand, I don't like the idea of an economy falling out of control because of panic....and over-reaction. But our country is in a world of hurt, and under a mountain of debt. In general, the USA is "too big to fail"! (where have I heard that before)

My plan.....at the moment, my portfolio is roughly apportioned like this:
77% - BONDS (about 6 funds)
11% - Foreign Currency (Cash in Euro, Yuan, Aust $, Canada $, Swiss Franc)
1% - Gold
5% - Equities (two funds at my work 401K)
5% - CD Fund
1% - US$ Cash

I am thinking of dollar cost averaging out of the bond funds into cash....I'm just afraid that some of these "safe" funds have exposure to some more of the "safe" companies that seem to be falling all around us ever day. (yet to fall that is)

I think I might get out about 10% a week.....and at some point, start dollar cost averaging into TIPS or iBONDS......to the point where I have perhaps 40% of my total money in inflation protected government securities.

I might actually "play" with perhaps some of my money and put it in and out of a couple of bear funds.....but that is kind of like gambling.....and that isn't my style.

Economy uncertain, the Markets seesaw and PETA is outraged and working overtime!

2008-09-26T07:36:00.005-04:00

With the economy stuck in neutral, the financial sector frozen and close to insolvent, the stock market doesn't quite know what to do.....

Yesterday everyone was looking at economic statistics on jobs, housing sales, inflation and factory production. Today no one seems to be looking at the fundamentals and everyone is staring and waiting to see what sort of bailout plan is being passed.....

It seems that equity markets rise and fall on an almost daily basis.....and we see a rapid seesaw action in the big averages.

All of this has resulted in a massive increases in the regular "around the water cooler" discussions of meat, and this have the people at PETA outraged!

Because of the up and down "grinding" of the markets:

Bulls get slaughtered
Bears get ground into hamburg
The position of "cash cows"(sometimes known as Chickens) is slowly getting softened by rising inflation

In an odd turn, PETA might actually be hoping for the bailout, because with it, the Pigs that normally get slaughtered will be saved! (Especially true of the high level piggy CEOs and leaders....but then I should have seen this coming from my reading of Animal Farm!)

It truly is an odd world we live in.....

What some others think of our Present Situation and the Bailout.....

2008-09-25T23:31:00.004-04:00

Pat Buchanan isn't conviced it is the right approach....he writes "Bailout For the Big and Stupid"

Alan Keyes conference call labels it "...a transformation to Socialism".

Chuck Norris says we need to go back to the values of our countries founding fathers.

Ron Paul isn't happy.....

Jack Welsh...."We need this bailout."

Warren Buffet talks about the bailout and how it might be a windfall for some getting it!

WaMu Fails.....bailout not quite here....

2008-09-25T22:05:00.002-04:00

Washington Mutual has apparently failed.....and tonight it was gobbled up by the FDIC. Well, sort of.....I guess the "good parts" were bought by JPMorgan.

With all the talk of the bailout.....it appears that the financial collapse continues to march along unchecked. (plenty of bad news was released today about rising unemployment, falling factory orders, and other stuff too)

Speaking of the bailout.....that hasn't quite passed yet. I know it isn't easy to spend $700 billion.....but I'd love to just get that chance myself.

Perhaps we will all wake up on Monday to a day of financial certainlty......with everyone smelling the roses.....but I somehow don't think that will be how the next week starts off.

Pray that calm heads prevail in the end.

President Bush Says what others have been saying....does that make it sink in more havinfg the President say it?

2008-09-24T22:18:00.005-04:00

PRESIDENT BUSH OUTLINES THE PROBLEM WITHOUT EMOTION:
The speech by President Bush was actually a lot less emotional than I thought it would be. I wondered exactly how he would approach it...I mean, he certainly made it clear that we are in a heap of trouble....operating in an area we never have.

But for my money, he was almost monotonic....non-emotional about the whole thing. I expected one of two things....I expected a worried, tone....or a "Let's pull together and win one for the gipper" sort of approach.

I heard the words....and they are the same words I have heard over the past few days from all kinds of other economists and others close to the situation. The USA, in fact the global economy is sitting at a point where things could go very very badly....and no one is really sure if what we are about to do will really fix things.

But even so, they also know that doing NOTHING will clearly end up in a meltdown.....so as my father used to say, "do something even if it is wrong.....just try!"

So this is our government trying.....and I suppose it might be such an important point in history, that approaching it calmly and with focus and thought might be far better than with worry or bull-headed action. Maybe the President approached it perfectly....only our future will be able to properly judge that.

I hope he did for all our sakes.

JACK WELSH WANTS ACTION:
On another program, I saw Jack Welsh, former superstar head of GE getting all charged up and demanding government action. He wasn't sure that $700 billion was the right amount, but he was sure that inaction was no solution....not just no solution, but EXACTLY the wrong solution.

He sure seemed excited about the problem....if anyone wasn't sure we were in need of action, all you need to do it watch Jack Welsh talk about the problem for about 30 seconds, and you will be convinced that this isn't a small run of the mill issue.

WHAT SHOULD WE DO?
What do people like you and I do in the mean time? That is the $64,000 question I suppose.

I'd say you watch the economic situation unfold and try to jump into the right place at the right time. I think this kind of spending means printing money. I think this means inflation...devalued dollars.

I have some money in foreign currency and CDs at Everbank. I also have some Gold....all told, about 12% of my investments are there....with about 80% in about 5 high quality bond funds....and a smattering of money at my work 401K in money markets, bonds and some stocks.

I have Chinese Yuan, Euro, Swiss Francs and as I noted, some gold.

Is the the right thing to do.....I have not a clue, but it fits the several visions of what I think will happen now....this isn't a business as usual time.

Oh brother.....is this a reply of the Crash in 1929?

2008-09-18T01:54:00.003-04:00

Ok...so this isn't exactly the same.....but perhaps in scope. I hope not because if it is, then four years from now we will be seeing 25% unemployment.

Gold had it's largest single day increase EVER yesterday...and the dollar is again beginning to devalue.

Hang on tight.....it is going to be a rough ride.

Looks as though Warren Brussee was right!

FDIC is running out of cash.....but who guarentee's them....why ALL of us of course!

2008-09-17T09:52:00.004-04:00

I just read an article that suggests that if WaMu (Washington Mutual) bank goes under today that that FDIC will NOT have the money to cover the losses.

What to do....well, tap into the treasury of course.....which means deficit spending, higher taxes, or simply turning on the printing presses. None of those options are good for us regular tax payers......the last one is really bad for the value of the dollar.

What is WaMu falls, and there are others behind them? There have been 11 banks who have folded so far this year.....I guess it has been OK because they have been smaller institutions.

We certainly are at a very difficult inflection point in our lives right now. Let's pray for calm heads and compassionate hearts for all of us.

OMG: 504 Point loss in the DOW....what to do?

2008-09-16T00:06:00.003-04:00

Today was another in a string of busy days at work.....it has been this way for about 2 weeks now, and it is both hectic and exciting. Exciting because issues and problems just seem to be piled up everywhere I look....and potential "stop ship" situations have presented themselves more than a handful of times in that time. (and given the time we are at nearing the end of the quarter, this would be the WORST timing if they happened....our product is selling very well, and we need to maximize revenue!)

So Busy I Missed A Big Day On Wallstreet:
I was so "preoccupied" with work that I never really got to look at the stock market today....and I'm glad I didn't look because it was apparently very messy. The market ended up down 504 points, and headlines like those below were posted at the end of it all:

Paulson: Americans Should Remain Confident in U.S. Financial System
Meltdown in US finance system pummels stock market
Dow Down 500: It Could Have Been Worse, but 'Crash' Risk Remains, Roubini says
Big Risk: Surging Debt Makes U.S. More Dependent on China, Russia, Gulf States

Not Meant as a Negative Post:
I know this is a pretty negative post, and I don't mean that. I like to keep this Journal positive.....one might consider my Personal Finance Blog to be negative....but even there, I try NOT to be negative, but try to reason my way in and around my investment ideas. It is true that I have been very down on the US debt in this world....and our outsourcing flood over the last decade.....but even so, I try hard NOT to be negative there.

Learn To Be A Saver:
What to do....well, that's probably a matter better handled in my money BLOG, but I would say that it is time to stay away from debt....become a saver if you are not already. Where to put your savings is the question....well, I was feeling really bad about my move of about 20% of my portfolio into international currency two weeks ago...the dollar seemed to keep strengthening and it looked like a BAD MOVE....but in one 504 point loss day, I feel like an Einstein....I think the USA will have to start up the printing presses and a devaluing dollar might again be in the cards.

Either way....credit will be tight, debt will be messy....and savings is in style again. (IMHO)

Check out this video made by the maker of the Mad Money Machine Podcast.

Check out this video.....pretty scary prediction.

I pulled the trigger on currency investing.....wish me luck!

2008-08-26T22:27:00.004-04:00

About two weeks ago I decided to move some of my money from cash in US Dollars to other currencies.

I wanted to do this because I wanted investments outside stocks, bonds and housing....and I do think the US Dollar has not finished its slide. I wanted yet another way to diversify my investments.

I was trying to decide between opening a FOREX account, buying currency ETFs, or just opening a foreign currency World Market account at Everbank.

I chose the last of those three, and parked some money in several places.

First, I went put come money in these currencies with a World Currency Account:

Chinese Yuan
Swiss Francs
Euros

Then I invested in a single Commodity CD with positions in:

Australian Dollars
Canadian Dollars
New Zealand Dollars
South African Currency

I then opened an account and bought a little bit of Gold in one of their Metal's Accounts.....

Then kept a small amount of money in a checking account in US Dollars.

Will it all pay off....in one way, I hope so...but that sort of relies on the US Dollar sliding....which in he long run, really stinks for us if it does. So perhaps I will think of this investment as sort of a hedge on possible bad things to come.

Hmmm....it is happening....China is growing to be a big market....when will they be #1?

2008-08-26T22:17:00.003-04:00

This Financial Times article states that China has just past the USA as the #1 consumer of Japanese goods......yikes, I know they are closer to them than we are, but I was always led to believe that it would take China several decades to consume at our levels.

Sorry Charlie....they seem to be getting there sooner than that.

So what happens when they are the #1 consumer nation? What will our place be in the world....what will the world need the USA for? (I submit that our value add today is that we consume and pay for the goods made so that these other emerging countries can build up their infrastructure.

In fact, these countries loan us money to make our purchases.....sort of "bootstrapping" their own growth.

Bill Gross thinks we will see a Trillion Dollar Deficit.....(three years from now?)

2008-08-06T19:14:00.002-04:00

<<- The current total US Government Debt
YIKES....this YOUTUBE video of an interview of Bill Gross of PIMCO Inc. is quite interesting. At the end of the video, he talks about the need for the government to run up perhaps a one trillion dollar deficit year....perhaps 3 years from now.

Ouch.....

Here is an interesting "Open Letter to Obama" that Gross posted. Check it out.

Bill Gross' Latest Discussion of the Economy Situation

2008-08-06T18:49:00.003-04:00

Bill Gross of Pimco Inc. is one of the world's largest mutual fund managers, focusing mostly on bonds. Called "the nation's most prominent bond investor" by the New York Times^[1], he manages Pacific Investment Management's Total Return fund (the world's largest bond fund and fifth largest mutual fund) and several smaller ones

Bill Gross is a very enlightened speaker with a lot of insight into the investment market, and world economies.

But he isn't always the easiest person to listen too and understand....often seemingly speaking in "code".

But even with this, I find listening to him to be quite interesting and educational.

Our Dollar is Shrinking......now what to do?

2008-08-01T10:08:00.003-04:00

Here is an MP3 post that talks about the shrinking dollar, and the US position in the world.....and it may perhaps give me a good view of what we might want to think about for future investing.

The US has been the global super power, and I suppose people elsewhere want to see us fall.

How to invest based on that.....I guess we all have to figure out how to navigate this era.

I like this Blogger...lots of good insight and info on saving, investing and personal finance!

2008-07-19T12:52:00.002-04:00

I was looking though the various personal finance BLOGGERS, and I came across Financial Learn, who I had never read. Lots of good stuff here.....stuff to think about and learn from.

Check it out.....I particularly liked this one on "5 Reasons People Suck At Saving".

________________________________________

From The Website
________________________________________

5 Reasons People Suck at Saving Money

1. Not Having a Plan – I’m going to tell you right now, if you don’t have a plan, you chances of success are less than 5%. Creating a plan is your first step to saving money. Your plan can be as detailed or as vague as you want, just make sure you have an idea of how you’re going to save money.

2. Procrastination – I am guilty of this one. If you made a plan, follow it. Try not to get into the habit of pushing your plan to the following week, month or even year.

3. Not Setting Goals – What prevents me from procrastination is the fact that I have certain financial goals that I want to accomplish such as paying off the house in 20 years instead of 25, retiring at 55 instead of 60 or going on an all inclusive vacation at the end of March if I save XXX amount of dollars. Setting goals gives me the motivation to follow my plan.

4. Lack of Knowledge on How to Save – If you have little idea on how to cut down costs and how to be more frugal just read a book or better yet peruse the thousands of personal finance blogs or websites for FREE located here on the net.

5. Going too Hard too Fast – I’ve seen many people go full tilt and save lots of money right at the start and think that they can trim there 25 year mortgage into 5 if they try really hard. They cut out everything that made them happy and after a few weeks they get bored and find that paying off the house in 5 years is too much work and THEY GO BACK TO THEIR REGULAR SPENDING WAYS.

The best approach is a slow and gradual one. Set small goals and cut out little things at first. When you think about saving money, think of it as a lifestyle and not a chore. If you ease yourself into it, saving money will eventually be a natural habit that won’t seem like work at all.

House prices in Westford Mass have taken a good size hit....

2008-07-18T09:53:00.004-04:00

No matter how you slice it.....going from close to $500,000 down to below $400,000 is a 20% hit.

I can't believe the seasonal nature of the market I see there....well, I knew there was a seasonality to the sales volume, but price too!

Maybe that only occures in what we today call a distressed market. (or should I say what we have today)

It would be funny if it were not true!

2008-07-17T17:51:00.003-04:00

Here is a chart (above) from the Onion....it is spoofing the fact that we seem to be repairing one bubble by going into another!

No kidding....the .COM bubble was "papered over" by acceleration of the Housing Bubble....which is currently being papered over by the Commidities Bubble.

Why not create another one!

A good Investopedia Article Outlining 5 Signs You Are Living Over Your Means

2008-07-16T10:35:00.004-04:00

A pretty good pair of articles that talk about knowing when you are stretched, and then some steps to control the situation.

Here are the signs of being beyond your means: (here is the article)

Sign No. 1 - Your Credit Score is Below 600
Sign No. 2 - You are Saving Less Than 5%
Sign No. 3 - Your Credit Card Balances are Rising
Sign No. 4 - More Than 28% of Income Goes To Your House
Sign No. 5 - Your Bills are Spiraling Out of Control

Here are the 5 stratigies for survival: (here is the article)

1. Don't Buy What You Can't Afford
2. If You Can't Pay Cash, You Probably Can't Afford It
3. Paying Interest on Anything Makes Somebody Else Rich
4. If You Are in Debt, stop Spending Money
5. Don't Count on Somebody Else to Save You

I.O.U.S.A - Coming soon to a screen near you!

2008-07-15T00:31:00.004-04:00

2008-07-14T14:34:00.004-04:00

Well actually....YES......I instructed my financial advisor to move my investments to high grade bond funds.

I had initially instructed that it go to cash, but changed my mind when he countered with the BOND fund option. (highest grade corporate bonds)

He did NOT agree with my assesment and my making this move, and put such a comment in our transation notes....but I am not happy seeing my investments slowly eroding. (with no sign of recovery in sight)

The Move to Cash....wise, too late, or too little too late?

2008-07-13T20:43:00.004-04:00

Well, I emailed my financial planner and asked him to move everything to cash. Yup....the Fanny Mae / Freddie Mac situation is glowing hot and things are not looking up in the general investment environment.

The market is lip sliding away.....stocks and bonds seem to be eroding as I watch.

So I'm at the point where I'm trying to decide what to do...but I just feel I have to stop the bleeding!

Is this a bad time to fall out, I suppose there is always a potential problem of selling low, buying high.....but I don't think this is the bottom.

Hmmm....good information on the Mortgage Market

2008-07-11T00:12:00.004-04:00

This BLOG introduced me tot he graph above and it is all making sense now.

That is, I have been looking at house prices in Westford, Mass and noticing that the last couple of months has seen a major drop in sale prices, and of foreclosures.

Well....the graph above explains it....well, that with the idea that actual forclosure takes about 6 months from people getting in trouble. (reset of ARM, etc....)

So off we go....hopefully with prices settling in too.

Ross Perot is back with his charts...updated for the 21st century problems

2008-06-20T19:06:00.004-04:00

Ross Perot is back again.....and I think he is sorely missed. (once again with charts in hand....errr, on a website I guess)

Yes, I worked for his effort back in 1992....and I voted for him twice.....and he sure did focus though on the right issues......thought I thought he was a bit of a hipocrite. (he touted UWSA as a bottoms up organization, when it clearly was not...but I digress)

But even with this, Perot was the perfect canary in the coal mine....he brought problems to light when others had trouble beinging them down to size enough for people to grasp.

His simple explanations were perfect....and they are again!

BTW: Perot was right....there is a "Great Sucking sound"...but not from Mexico.

So he has on sort of a come-back tour.....no, not running for president....but trying to get the word out (apparently) in order to drive the presidential debate.

Good for him...and good for his charts.

Check them out at http://perotcharts.com/

Here is an article that describes the content and purpose of Perot's website.

Inflation vs Deflation.....how do you tell?

2008-06-16T19:53:00.002-04:00

I have been busy with work and not paying too much attention to my finances. But then, I am more of a buy and hold guy than a "trader" anyways.

Well, I poked my head out of the sand today, and noticed that a lot of things were changing. In fact, I thought the market had been going up for a time a few weeks ago....and I was susprised because I just didn't see a reason for it.

But now it seems to be sliding down, and at least doing a sideways dance.

I also noted that there were talks about higher then expected inflation...but I wondered it that was due to rising energy and food prices, or if it was across the board.

Interesting to find this article that seems to be saying that there are a number of things that have actually been going down.....

Why do I ask....well, deflation is a very bad thing, and should we fall into that spiral, we would be cooked.

Our economy is based on spending, and at the very least investing.....we invest in areas looking for a return. If the return is larger just putting the money in our mattress, then that is what happens.

But the economy NEEDS money out there....flowing from place to place.

Without it, it isn't dynamic.

Deflation results in a situation where you make more money just sitting on it....so people do. But this just goes to further contract the supply of money....which cripples the economy.

I wonder if energy prices are being manipulated to keep inflation positive. In fact, perhaps inflated to stunt the growth of trade.....which would tend to create more "home-grown" opportunities everywhere...and less "outsourcing".

The result might be a slowing of capital drain from places like the USA, which is already in a heap of trouble in that regard.

But is it possible that any group can have such control over energy? I think not, but then.....never say never.

Well....I'm not sure what is going on....but at least investment things are going in a direction that makes sense to me....albeit DOWN!

Oh well....I'm still looking for the bottom of the housing market....maybe that would be the time to invest in rental property. (risk, risk, risk.....)

Hmmm...interesting tip on buying a forclosure....

2008-05-13T17:19:00.003-04:00

I was looking at Trulia.COM, the housing sales website when I spied a set of questions written about secrets of buying foreclosed homes.

I liked the idea of buying a foreclosure because I figure the current owner (bank or whoever) might be a bit distressed and ready to deal.

But the set of questions brought up a fact that I just hadn't totally considered....well, only sort of half considered.

I had thought about the possibility that the person who defaulted did so not because they fell into bad times, but perhaps there was something so WRONG with the house or their life situation that they just elected to DROP it.

Well, this article brought up a particular case of this that I hadn't even considered.....what if the old owner used the house to cook methamphetamine? (here is the Wiki entry on methamphetamine )

I suppose I had considered the possibility that a house might have a nasty mold problem...or any of a host of other health related issues.....but having a problem of drug residue all over wasn't something I had considered. It would be a problem much like that of having lead paint.....it could be fixed, but at what cost?

Oh well.....just another thing to consider I suppose.

Hmmm....as goes Gold, so does Oil?

2008-05-05T16:54:00.003-04:00

I saw this BLOG today that describes what sounds like dire times for oil....but at the end of the article, I saw the graph I have included here.

It is interesting to me because it compares the price of oil (per barrel) to in units of dollars, Euros, and Ounces of Gold.

We know how Gold has gone up in recent years.....and we see the same thing with oil.

But I didn't think the price of oil and gold had tracked each other so well....almost a flat line as opposed to the dollar!

What does that mean? Do people put Oil on the same level as gold? That is, is it so needed by the world that it has become a new place to consider a "sure thing" should there be financial collapse?

I don't think so myself.....but I wonder what other think?

The housing crunch hits the northeast....

2008-04-30T09:37:00.003-04:00

Houses in Westford, Mass:
It is spring, and house sales are supposed to rise at this point.

I'm not sure how they have been going, but as I see from the average house prices in Westford Mass, they prices look to be falling.

I see that the average # of houses on the market in that town seems to have hovered aroung 51-52 for the last few months.....so I'm not sure if that means things are even selling.

Houses in Litchfield, NH:
Here is the graph for Litchfield, NH...the town I live in. I am surprised to see that it looks as though house prices are rising....but then, oit might be the fact that prices in the town were low to start with, and have actually been down about 12% from evaluation for the past year.

It's all a very complex picture....but it looks like selling and buying a house has become a much higher stakes games in recent months.

Good luck to all.....

Today's Sad News......nothing too new I suppose.....

2008-04-29T12:36:00.003-04:00

The news headlines below are really nothing new.....but when I read them today, I realized how messed up things really are.

I think I have commented in earlier BLOG posts that things seemed to be sinking yet stocks seemed to be floating along.....unaffected.

Well, today the market is a bit choppy, but nothing compared to the sort of headlines we are seeing as I type. (below)

______________________________________

Buffet thinks the downturn will be longer than people expect.....

2008-04-28T18:01:00.004-04:00

I liked the graphic above because I think the problems we have a nation have to do with each and every one of us....OK, perhaps thats too broad a net....but it has to do with our collective mindset.

The mindset I am refering to is our "get it now, pay later" instant gratification actions that we have clung to as a country for the past 20 years or so. I'd say that savings has been a passe concept since about the '80s, and that the way to make money has been to go out on a limb and "risk" things on margin.

Ok, the margin might not be exactly defined as it might be with a brokerage account....it might mean mortgaing your house to the hilt and using that money to say buy another house or even worst, the creature comforts you want.

Well, as the above poster indicates.....none of us thinks we had anything to do with our slide...."my effect is but a pisshole in the snow".....but together, we can cover a lot of area!

I'm not exactly sure that this is WHY Warren Buffet believes the downturn is going to be worst and of a longer than everyone thinks.....but when I heard that, I felt he was right.

What do we need to do to protect ourselves thought.....at least those of us with some savings.

I just don't know.....it is a scary thought though.

Here are the words of Buffet himself:

"This is not a field of specialty for me, but my general feeling is that the recession will be longer and deeper than most people think," Buffett said. "This will not be short and shallow.
"I think consumers are feeling gas and food prices," he added, "and not feeling they've got a lot of money for other things."

Staples apparently has a place to park your "Economic Stimulus" windfall!

2008-04-28T17:50:00.005-04:00

Well, the people at Staples seem to think they have the answer to our economic woes.....well, maybe their economic woes anyways. :-)

They have a web page that you can visit when you get your "Economic Stimulus Windfall payment". (my words, not theirs or those of President Bush)

I guess we all have to do our part....so let's all get out there and SPEND like there is no tomorrow!

Is the Future INFLATION OR DEFLATION?: Here is a vote for Deflation.....not what I wanted to hear

2008-04-08T19:57:00.002-04:00

Check out this BLOG that seems to be describing a future of Deflation......not a pretty sight.

I will have to study what they are saying because quite frankly, it is all going over my head right now.....but if we are going to suffer deflation, it would be critical to know NOW! (save, save, save....cash is king)

I learned something that might be useful - "In times of crisis, correlation increases."

2008-03-28T12:35:00.002-04:00

I read an interesting thing on the Seeking Alpha BLOG that I will not try to repeat here, (and that BLOG refered to this article)

The article stated something quite interesting:

There is no escape. People investing in stocks have lost money since world equities peaked on Hallowe'en last year and shifting around the world cannot change that. The amount you lose is determined by your home currency.

So it sounds as though the world economies are slowing down in lock step.....probably an indication of hosw strong of an influence the US economy, and the US Dollar has on everyone.

So my theory has been that the world would eventually get tired of the USA's debtor ways, and find a way to replace our consumtion with consumers....oh, say from China or India.

I think the sign that this has begun to take hold is when the three economies of the world stop correlating so closely.....when the USA is allowed to drop while the others level off and then perhaps climb.

At that point, there will be a clear winner in terms of where to invest. But what to do in the mean time.

An interesting article that talk about "intervention" for those with "spending / debt" problems

2008-03-25T13:57:00.003-04:00

My girlfriend is an addictions councelor so she would have a lot better read on the additions angle on this thought.....but I think the article is an interesting read.

From the article:

Financial interventions, by contrast, are usually conducted by amateurs on impulse. And giving up money isn't an option.
"Financial mismanagement is more like an eating disorder," Willis said. "We have to have a relationship with food, and we have to have a relationship with money."
And instead of breaking through someone's denial, face-offs over money often just lead to resentment.

Check it out. I think we all know people that we can see who are steering their "ship" toward the rocky coastline.....and we want to just reach out and grab the rudder. (described as a train wreck in this article)

But I guess it isn't all that easy.

Two news reports from a local NH TV station that describe the condition of the economy

2008-03-24T12:39:00.003-04:00

The Whitehouse assesment of the state of the economy is one full of positive spin. I suppose this is what you would expect for anyone trying to make the job they are doing look good....so I suppose we might want to just consider that when we read it.

But there were two articles that came across my email today that make me wonder how things are going. I don't know if they are leading or lagging indicators....but I assume that might be the latter.

The first talk about the number of homeless in NH doubling in the latest "one day count" just recently taken. The state apparently takes this count on the same day every year in an attempt to have a standard metric of measurement. The count of homeless is taken on January 30th, and this year's count showed 2600 people vs 1300 for last year. (with 484 of them sleeping on the streets and not in shelters) A two fold rise is a significant increase for sure, especially since the article noted that the numbers have been essentially FLAT for the past 3 years. What's going on? The winter wasn't that warm that people flocked to NH to be homeless here as opposed to a southern state.

The second article I read today talk about the increased debt load that college students are now taking on as opposed to students in the past. It turns out the the average student has about $20,000 in debt upon graduation.....with credit card debt averaging about $3300. Several "experts" noted that they felt today's students had too many credit cards and too much card debt.

The article noted:

Overall, 46 percent of students and 55 percent of former students were reported delinquent on credit card payments. Lowe said she was surprised that 21 percent of college freshmen were at least four months behind on their credit card payments. She also said she was shocked that 42 percent of students had at least six open major credit cards, not including store-issued cards or gasoline cards. "The delinquency shows that they really don't know the consequences of what happens when they don't pay their credit card bills," Lowe said. The consequences include lower credit ratings, which could affect their chances of renting an apartment, getting a job, getting another student loan, or after graduation, buying a home.

Six credit cards.....yikes, I have two and never use one holding it as a back-up. It sounds as though some of them are going from one to the other in order to juggle between them. That seems like financial quicksand to me!

Even with the $3300 credit card debt, it would take 11 years to pay that off with minimum payments. (and not adding at all to the amount....so much longer if you do)

Again....is this a leading or lagging indicator.....you decide.